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Unemployment Benefits, Labor Market Transitions, and Spurious Flows: A Multinational Logit Model with Errors in Classification

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  • James M. Poterba
  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

This paper develops an algorithm for analyzing discrete events, such as labor market transitions, when some of these transitions are spurious because of measurement errors. Our algorithm extends the standard multinomial logit model, although our basic approach could be used with other stochastic models as well. We apply this algorithm to study the effect of unemployment insurance (UI) on transitions from unemployment to employment and out of the labor force. Our results suggest that VI lengthens unemployment spells by reducing both transition rates, and show that correcting for measurement error strengthens the apparent effect of VI on spell durations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4434.

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Date of creation: Aug 1993
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Publication status: published as Review of Economics & Statistics, vol. LXXVII, no. 2, pp. 207-216, (May 1995).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4434

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  1. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
  2. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
  3. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December.
  4. Feldstein, Martin & Poterba, James, 1984. "Unemployment insurance and reservation wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 141-167.
  5. Duncan, Greg J & Hill, Daniel H, 1985. "An Investigation of the Extent and Consequences of Measurement Error in Labor-Economic Survey Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 508-32, October.
  6. John M. Barron & Wesley Mellow, 1981. "Changes in Labor Force Status among the Unemployed," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 16(3), pages 427-441.
  7. John Bound & Charles Brown & Greg J. Duncan & Willard L Rodgers, 1989. "Measurement Error In Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Labor Market Surveys: Results From Two Validation Studies," NBER Working Papers 2884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. John Bound & Alan B. Krueger, 1989. "The Extent of Measurement Error In Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make A Right?," NBER Working Papers 2885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Labor Market Dynamics in Russia," Working Papers 780, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  2. Monastiriotis, Vassilis, 2000. "Inter- And Intra-Regional Wage Inequalities In The Uk: An Examination Of The Sources Of Uk Wage Inequalities And Their Evolution," ERSA conference papers ersa00p228, European Regional Science Association.

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