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School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas

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  • Charles J. Courtemanche
  • Anh H. Le
  • Aaron Yelowitz
  • Ron Zimmer

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles J. Courtemanche & Anh H. Le & Aaron Yelowitz & Ron Zimmer, 2021. "School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas," NBER Working Papers 28753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28753
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Malte Sandner & Alexander Patzina & Silke Anger & Sarah Bernhard & Hans Dietrich, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic, well-being, and transitions to post-secondary education," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 461-483, June.
    2. Marc Diederichs & Reyn van Ewijk & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2022. "Schools under mandatory testing can mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(26), pages 2201724119-, June.
    3. Rufrancos, Héctor & Moro, Mirko & Moore, Eva, 2021. "The impact of University reopenings on COVID-19 cases in Scotland," GLO Discussion Paper Series 868, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Alvin Christian & Brian Jacob & John D. Singleton, 2022. "Assessing School District Decision-Making: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Casey B. Mulligan, 2021. "The incidence and magnitude of the health costs of in-person schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 303-332, September.
    6. Sen, Anindya & Baker, John David & Zhang, Qihuang & Agarwal, Rishav Raj & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2023. "Do more stringent policies reduce daily COVID-19 case counts? Evidence from Canadian provinces," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 225-242.
    7. Thomas Dee & Elizabeth Huffaker & Cheryl Phillips & Eric Sagara, 2021. "The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening: Evidence from Public-School Disenrollment," NBER Working Papers 29156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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