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The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary

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  • Chad Cotti
  • Bryan Engelhardt
  • Joshua Foster
  • Erik Nesson
  • Paul Niekamp

Abstract

On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due to fewer polling locations. We use county‐level variation in voting patterns and weekly county‐level COVID test data to examine whether in‐person voting increased COVID‐19 cases. We find a statistically significant association between in‐person voting density and the spread of COVID‐19 2–3 weeks after the election. In our main results, a 10% increase in in‐person voters per polling location is associated with an 18.4% increase in the COVID‐19 positive test rate 2–3 weeks later.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:39:y:2021:i:4:p:760-777
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12519
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    Cited by:

    1. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Are the Effects of Adoption and Termination of Shelter-in-Place Orders Symmetric? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 27322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bach, Laurent & Guillouzouic, Arthur & Malgouyres, Clément, 2021. "Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a COVID-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 13314, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    6. Jochen Güntner, 2020. "The toll of voting in a pandemic: Municipal elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria," Economics working papers 2020-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    8. Charles J. Courtemanche & Anh H. Le & Aaron Yelowitz & Ron Zimmer, 2021. "School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas," NBER Working Papers 28753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    10. Adam Brzezinski & David Van Dijcke & Valentin Kecht, 2020. "The Cost of Staying Open: Voluntary Social Distancing and Lockdowns in the US," Economics Series Working Papers 910, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Thuy D. Nguyen & Sumedha Gupta & Martin Andersen & Ana Bento & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility," NBER Working Papers 27235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Cipullo, Davide & Le Moglie, Marco, 2022. "To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Mangrum, Daniel & Niekamp, Paul, 2022. "JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Mello, M. & Moscelli, G., 2021. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 21/17, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    15. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    16. Harris, Jeffrey E., 2020. "COVID-19, bar crowding, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court: A non-linear tale of two counties," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hiroaki Funahashi & Alexander Cardazzi & Nicholas Masafumi Watanabe, 2023. "Mass Gathering Sport Events and the Spread of Viral Respiratory Infection: Japanese Professional Baseball and Influenza," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 551-578, June.
    19. Ján Palguta & Levínský, René & Škoda, Samuel, 2021. "Do Elections Accelerate the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 891, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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