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The Relationship between In-Person Voting and COVID-19: Evidence from the Wisconsin Primary

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  • Chad D. Cotti
  • Bryan Engelhardt
  • Joshua Foster
  • Erik T. Nesson
  • Paul S. Niekamp

Abstract

On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due to fewer polling locations. We use county-level variation in voting patterns and weekly county-level COVID test data to examine whether in-person voting increased COVID-19 cases. We find a statistically significant association between in-person voting density and the spread of COVID-19 two to three weeks after the election. In our main results, a 10% increase in in-person voters per polling location is associated with an 18.4% increase in the COVID-19 positive test rate two to three weeks later.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad D. Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik T. Nesson & Paul S. Niekamp, 2020. "The Relationship between In-Person Voting and COVID-19: Evidence from the Wisconsin Primary," NBER Working Papers 27187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27187
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Politics

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    1. Bach, Laurent & Guillouzouic, Arthur & Malgouyres, Clément, 2021. "Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Charles J. Courtemanche & Anh H. Le & Aaron Yelowitz & Ron Zimmer, 2021. "School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas," NBER Working Papers 28753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    4. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    6. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    7. Thuy D. Nguyen & Sumedha Gupta & Martin Andersen & Ana Bento & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility," NBER Working Papers 27235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Harris, Jeffrey E., 2020. "COVID-19, bar crowding, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court: A non-linear tale of two counties," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Ján Palguta & Levínský, René & Škoda, Samuel, 2021. "Do Elections Accelerate the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 891, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Mangrum, Daniel & Niekamp, Paul, 2022. "JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hiroaki Funahashi & Alexander Cardazzi & Nicholas Masafumi Watanabe, 2023. "Mass Gathering Sport Events and the Spread of Viral Respiratory Infection: Japanese Professional Baseball and Influenza," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 551-578, June.
    13. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Are the Effects of Adoption and Termination of Shelter-in-Place Orders Symmetric? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 27322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a COVID-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 13314, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Jochen Güntner, 2020. "The toll of voting in a pandemic: Municipal elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria," Economics working papers 2020-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    16. Adam Brzezinski & David Van Dijcke & Valentin Kecht, 2020. "The Cost of Staying Open: Voluntary Social Distancing and Lockdowns in the US," Economics Series Working Papers 910, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Cipullo, Davide & Le Moglie, Marco, 2022. "To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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