IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28492.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability

Author

Listed:
  • Amrita Ahuja
  • Susan Athey
  • Arthur Baker
  • Eric Budish
  • Juan Camilo Castillo
  • Rachel Glennerster
  • Scott Duke Kominers
  • Michael Kremer
  • Jean Nahrae Lee
  • Canice Prendergast
  • Christopher M. Snyder
  • Alex Tabarrok
  • Brandon Joel Tan
  • Witold Więcek

Abstract

Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement. We find that if the goal is to accelerate the vaccine delivery timetable, buyers should directly fund manufacturing capacity and shoulder most of the risk of failure, while maintaining some direct incentives for speed. We analyzed the optimal portfolio of vaccine investments for countries with different characteristics as well as the implications for international cooperation. Our analysis, considered in light of the experience of 2020, suggests lessons for future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Amrita Ahuja & Susan Athey & Arthur Baker & Eric Budish & Juan Camilo Castillo & Rachel Glennerster & Scott Duke Kominers & Michael Kremer & Jean Nahrae Lee & Canice Prendergast & Christopher M. Snyde, 2021. "Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability," NBER Working Papers 28492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28492
    Note: EH IO
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28492.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Kremer & Jonathan Levin & Christopher M. Snyder, 2020. "Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 269-273, May.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044, December.
    3. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
    4. Lars Bo Jeppesen & Karim R. Lakhani, 2010. "Marginality and Problem-Solving Effectiveness in Broadcast Search," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(5), pages 1016-1033, October.
    5. Michael Kremer, 2021. "Vaccines and the Pandemic," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agarwal, Ruchir & Gaule, Patrick, 2022. "What drives innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Nikhil Agarwal & Andrew Komo & Chetan A. Patel & Parag A. Pathak & M. Utku Ünver, 2021. "The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures," NBER Working Papers 28519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ockenfels Axel, 2021. "Marktdesign für eine resiliente Impfstoff-produktion," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 259-269, September.
    4. Veronika Grimm & Franziska K. Lembcke & Milena Schwarz, 2021. "Impffortschritt in Deutschland und der Welt: Chancen und Risiken [Opportunities and Risks of Vaccination Progress]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(4), pages 266-275, April.
    5. Simon J. Evenett & Bernard Hoekman & Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta, 2021. "The Covid-19 Vaccine Production Club: Will Value Chains Temper Nationalism?," RSCAS Working Papers 2021/36, European University Institute.
    6. Scott Duke Kominers & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from failure and success [‘Many Say They’re Confused About Whether, When to Get Second Booster’]," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 719-741.
    7. Kyle, Margaret K., 2022. "Incentives for pharmaceutical innovation: What’s working, what’s lacking," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orietta Nicolis & Jean Paul Maidana & Fabian Contreras & Danilo Leal, 2024. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability: A Clustering Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Quibria, M.G., 2020. "Poverty and Policy in the Developing World: Before and After the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 104240, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2020.
    3. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    4. Abdoul’ Ganiou Mijiyawa & Djoulassi K. Oloufade, 2023. "Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 437-470, April.
    5. Isaac K. Ofori & Mark K. Armah & Emmanuel E. Asmah, 2021. "Towards the Reversal of Poverty and Income Inequality Setbacks Due to COVID-19: The Role of Globalisation and Resource Allocation," Working Papers 21/043, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    6. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    7. Ian M. McDonald, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy to Aid Recovery after Social Distancing for COVID‐19," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(3), pages 415-428, September.
    8. repec:thr:techub:10020:y:2021:i:1:p:100-107 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel," NBER Working Papers 28339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Yannick Markhof, 2020. "Pakistan's social protection response to the COVID-19 pandemic: the adequacy of Ehsaas emergency cash and the road ahead," Working Papers 188, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    12. Marcos Deuñas & Mercedes Campi & Luis Olmos, 2020. "Changes in mobility and socioeconomic conditions in Bogotá city during the COVID-19 outbreak," Working Papers 30, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    13. Nasir Ababulgu & Nugusa Abajobir & Hika Wana, 2022. "The embarking of COVID-19 and the perishable products’ value chain in Ethiopia," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Marco Due~nas & V'ictor Ortiz & Massimo Riccaboni & Francesco Serti, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Trade: a Machine Learning Counterfactual Analysis," Papers 2104.04570, arXiv.org.
    15. MARINOV, Eduard, 2022. "The Transforming Role Of Developing Countries In Global Trade," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 10(1), pages 264-275, October.
    16. World Bank, 2020. "India Development Update, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34367, The World Bank Group.
    17. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2019. "The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2019/162, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Ben Yahmed, Sarra & Cappellari, Lorenzo & Checchi, Daniele & Corak, Miles & Jenkins, Stephen P. & Neidhöfer, Guido & Tertilt, Michele & Tommasi, Mariano, 2020. "COVID-19 and inequality," ZEW policy briefs 5/2020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Kara, Alper & Nanteza, Aziidah & Ozkan, Aydin & Yildiz, Yilmaz, 2022. "Board gender diversity and responsible banking during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Kose, M. Ayhan & Elgin, Ceyhun & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yu, Shu, 2021. "Understanding Informality," CEPR Discussion Papers 16497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28492. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.