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Public Mobility Data Enables COVID-19 Forecasting and Management at Local and Global Scales

Author

Listed:
  • Cornelia Ilin
  • Sébastien E. Annan-Phan
  • Xiao Hui Tai
  • Shikhar Mehra
  • Solomon M. Hsiang
  • Joshua E. Blumenstock

Abstract

Policymakers everywhere are working to determine the set of restrictions that will effectively contain the spread of COVID-19 without excessively stifling economic activity. We show that publicly available data on human mobility — collected by Google, Facebook, and other providers — can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and forecast the spread of COVID-19. This approach relies on simple and transparent statistical models, and involves minimal assumptions about disease dynamics. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using local and regional data from China, France, Italy, South Korea, and the United States, as well as national data from 80 countries around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornelia Ilin & Sébastien E. Annan-Phan & Xiao Hui Tai & Shikhar Mehra & Solomon M. Hsiang & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2020. "Public Mobility Data Enables COVID-19 Forecasting and Management at Local and Global Scales," NBER Working Papers 28120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Valerie Mueller & Glenn Sheriff & Corinna Keeler & Megan Jehn, 2021. "COVID‐19 Policy Modeling in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 24-38, March.
    3. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
    4. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Solomon Hsiang & Daniel Allen & Sébastien Annan-Phan & Kendon Bell & Ian Bolliger & Trinetta Chong & Hannah Druckenmiller & Luna Yue Huang & Andrew Hultgren & Emma Krasovich & Peiley Lau & Jaecheol Le, 2020. "The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 262-267, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. John McLaren & Su Wang, 2020. "Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach," NBER Working Papers 28275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy," NBER Working Papers 28898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 253-285, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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