IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27166.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey E. Harris

Abstract

We critically analyze the currently available status indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic so that state governors will have the guideposts necessary to decide whether to further loosen or instead retighten controls on social and economic activity. Overreliance on aggregate, state-level data in Wisconsin, we find, confounds the effects of the spring primary elections and the outbreak among meat packers. Relaxed testing standards in Los Angeles may have upwardly biased the observed trend in new infection rates. Reanalysis of New Jersey data, based upon the date an ultimately fatal case first became ill rather than the date of death, reveals that deaths have already peaked in that state. Evidence from Cook County, Illinois shows that trends in the percentage of positive tests can be wholly misleading. Trends on emergency department visits for influenza-like illness, advocated by the White House Guidelines, are unlikely to be informative. Data on hospital census counts in Orange County, California suggest that healthcare system-based indicators are likely to be more reliable and informative. An analysis of cumulative infections in San Antonio, Texas, shows how mathematical models intended to guide decisions on relaxation of social distancing are severely limited by untested assumptions. Universal coronavirus testing may not on its own solve difficult problems of data interpretation and causal inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For," NBER Working Papers 27166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27166
    Note: EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27166.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City," NBER Working Papers 26917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City," NBER Working Papers 27021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa & Grossbard, Shoshana, 2020. "Intergenerational residence patterns and Covid-19 fatalities in the EU and the US," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    2. Ainoa Aparicio & Shoshana Grossbard, 2021. "Are COVID fatalities in the US higher than in the EU, and if so, why?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 307-326, June.
    3. Dergiades, Theologos & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the economic and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: A value chain approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    6. Md. Abdur Rouf, 2022. "Impact of Consumers’ Buying Behavior on Luxurious Goods during COVID 19," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 16(1), pages 59-68.
    7. Alina Butu & Ioan Sebastian Brumă & Lucian Tanasă & Steliana Rodino & Codrin Dinu Vasiliu & Sebastian Doboș & Marian Butu, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Crisis upon the Consumer Buying Behavior of Fresh Vegetables Directly from Local Producers. Case Study: The Quarantined Area of Suceava County, Romania," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1019-1037, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Geospatial Analysis of the September 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin – Madison: Did a Cluster of Local Bars Play a Critical Role?," NBER Working Papers 28132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1019-1037, December.
    3. Lou, Jiehong & Shen, Xingchi & Niemeier, Deb, 2020. "Are stay-at-home orders more difficult to follow for low-income groups?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. de Palma, André & Vosough, Shaghayegh & Liao, Feixiong, 2022. "An overview of effects of COVID-19 on mobility and lifestyle: 18 months since the outbreak," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 372-397.
    5. George J. Borjas, 2020. "Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods," NBER Working Papers 26952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    7. Borsati, Mattia & Nocera, Silvio & Percoco, Marco, 2022. "Questioning the spatial association between the initial spread of COVID-19 and transit usage in Italy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Gómez-Lobo, Andrés & Gutiérrez, Mauro & Huamaní, Sandro & Marino, Diego & Serebrisky, Tomás & Solís, Ben, 2022. "Access to water and COVID-19: a regression discontinuity analysis for the peri-urban areas of Metropolitan Lima, Peru," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12332, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," Staff Report 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Anne Goujon & Fabrizio Natale & Daniela Ghio & Alessandra Conte, 2022. "Demographic and territorial characteristics of COVID-19 cases and excess mortality in the European Union during the first wave," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 533-556, December.
    11. Huayan Pei & Guanghui Yan & Yaning Huang, 2023. "Impact of contact rate on epidemic spreading in complex networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 96(4), pages 1-7, April.
    12. Matthias Flückiger & Markus Ludwig, 2023. "Spatial networks and the spread of COVID-19: results and policy implications from Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 43(1), pages 1-27, April.
    13. Laroze, Denise & Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2021. "COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    14. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    15. De Borger, Bruno & Proost, Stef, 2022. "Covid-19 and optimal urban transport policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 20-42.
    16. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Ivaldi, Marc & Palikot, Emil, 2020. "Sharing when stranger equals danger: Ridesharing during Covid-19 pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 15202, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Élise Labonté-LeMoyne & Shang-Lin Chen & Constantinos K. Coursaris & Sylvain Sénécal & Pierre-Majorique Léger, 2020. "The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures on Mass Transit and Car Use," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-13, November.
    19. Roland Pongou & Guy Tchuente & Jean-Baptiste Tondji, 2020. "An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization During COVID-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation," Working Papers 2009E Classification-E61,, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    20. Ruchi Avtar & Rajashri Chakrabarti & Lindsay Meyerson & William Nober & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2020. "The Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," Staff Reports 948, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.