Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises
AbstractWe propose a continuous time model of nominal debt and investigate the role of inflation credibility in the potential for self-fulfilling debt crises. Inflation is costly, but reduces the real value of outstanding debt without the full punishment of default. With high inflation credibility, which can be interpreted as joining a monetary union or issuing foreign currency debt, debt is effectively real. By contrast, with low inflation credibility, sovereign debt is nominal and in a debt crisis a government may opt to inflate away a fraction of the debt burden rather than explicitly default. This flexibility potentially reduces the country's exposure to self-fulfilling crises. On the other hand, the government lacks credibility not to inflate in the absence of crisis. This latter channel raises the cost of debt in tranquil periods and makes default more attractive in the event of a crisis, increasing the country's vulnerability. We characterize the interaction of these two forces. We show that there is an intermediate inflation credibility that minimizes the country's exposure to rollover risk. Low inflation credibility brings the worst of both worlds—high inflation in tranquil periods and increased vulnerability to a crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19516.
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Note: EFG IFM ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-10-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2013-10-18 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2013-10-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2013-10-18 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000.
"Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- José-María Da-Rocha & Eduardo-Luis Giménez & Francisco-Xavier Lores, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises with default and devaluation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 499-535, August.
- Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014.
"Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
- Fernando Broner & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2013. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Economics Working Papers 1372, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
- Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura & Aitor Erce, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 1402, Banco de Espa�a.
- Broner, Fernando A & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 9761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fernando Broner & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out Effects," NBER Working Papers 19676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fernando Broner & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martín & Jaume Ventura, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out Effects," Working Papers 701, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2013. "Take the Short Route: How to Repay and Restructure Sovereign Debt with Multiple Maturities," NBER Working Papers 19717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.