Left, Right, Left: Income, Learning and Political Dynamics
AbstractThe political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to a broad range of dynamic, non-concave income processes. The model implies support for redistributive policies materializes rapidly if few prospects of upward mobility are present. In contrast, modeling voters’ ideologically charged beliefs about income dynamics shows a slow and polarizing shift toward redistributive preferences occurs. Simulation using fitted income dynamics suggests that imperfect information better accounts for the shift back to the left, and offers additional insights about political dynamics.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19498.
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Note: DEV POL
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Morrow, John & Carter, Michael, 2013. "Left, right, left: income, learning and political dynamics," MPRA Paper 45020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2013-10-11 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-POL-2013-10-11 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Javier Santiso, 2007. "Latin America's Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free-Marketeers," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693593, December.
- Leonardo Gasparini & Matias Horenstein & Ezequiel Molina & Sergio Olivieri, 2008. "Income Polarization in Latin America: Patterns and Links with Institutions and Conflict," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 461-484.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Hong Ma & J. Peter Neary & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2013.
"Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(12), pages 1100-1129, December.
- Feenstra, Robert & Ma, Hong & Neary, J Peter & Rao, DS Prasada, 2011. "Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 8592, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Hong Ma & J. Peter Neary & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2012. "Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP," NBER Working Papers 17729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Neary & Robert C. Feenstra, 2011. "Who Shrunk China?� Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP," Economics Series Working Papers 566, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Alesina, Alberto & Rodrik, Dani, 1994.
"Distributive Politics and Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-90, May.
- Rodrik, Dani & Alesina, Alberto, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4551798, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto F & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bénabou, Roland & Ok, Efe A, 1998.
"Social Mobility and the Demand for Redistribution: the POUM Hypothesis,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roland Bénabou & Efe A. Ok, 2001. "Social Mobility And The Demand For Redistribution: The Poum Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 447-487, May.
- Roland Benabou & Efe A. Ok, 1998. "Social Mobility and the Demand for Redistribution: The POUM Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 6795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bénabou, Roland & Ok, Efe, 1997. "Social Mobility and the Demand for Redistribution : the POUM Hypothesis," IDEI Working Papers 78, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 1999.
- Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-27, October.
- Sweder van Wijnbergen & Tim Willems, 2012. "Learning Dynamics and the Support for Economic Reforms: Why Good News can be Bad," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-043/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Costas Aariadis & John Stachurski, 2004.
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
913, The University of Melbourne.
- Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1994. "Poverty, Incentives, and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 211-15, May.
- Checchi, Daniele & Filippin, Antonio, 2003. "An Experimental Study of the POUM Hypothesis," IZA Discussion Papers 912, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Stephen R. Boucher & Michael R. Carter & Catherine Guirkinger, 2008. "Risk Rationing and Wealth Effects in Credit Markets: Theory and Implications for Agricultural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 409-423.
- Piketty, Thomas, 1995.
"Social Mobility and Redistributive Politics,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 551-84, August.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855266 is not listed on IDEAS
- Olken, Benjamin A., 2006. "Corruption and the costs of redistribution: Micro evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(4-5), pages 853-870, May.
- Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett & Solomon Desta & D. Layne Coppock, 2004.
"Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 750-777, October.
- Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Desta, Solomon & Coppock, D. Layne, 2002. "Stochastic Wealth Dynamics And Risk Management Among A Poor Population," Working Papers 14736, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Fong, Christina, 2001. "Social preferences, self-interest, and the demand for redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 225-246, November.
- Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
- Fields, Gary S., 2007. "How much should we care about changing income inequality in the course of economic growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 577-585.
- Musgrove, Philip, 1979. "Permanent Household Income and Consumption in Urban South America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 355-68, June.
- Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
- Michelle Adato & Michael Carter & Julian May, 2006. "Exploring poverty traps and social exclusion in South Africa using qualitative and quantitative data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 226-247.
- Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Food security policy options for China: lessons from other countries," Departmental Working Papers 2014-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.