IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18882.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning about CEO Ability and Stock Return Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Yihui Pan
  • Tracy Yue Wang
  • Michael S. Weisbach

Abstract

When there is uncertainty about a CEO's quality, news about the firm causes rational investors to update their expectation of the firm's profitability for two reasons: Updates occur because of the direct effect of the news, and also because the news can cause an updated assessment of the CEO's quality, affecting expectations of his ability to generate future cash flows. As a CEO's quality becomes known more precisely over time, the latter effect becomes smaller, lowering the stock price reaction to news, and hence lowering the stock return volatility. Thus, in addition to uncertainty about fundamentals, uncertainty about CEO quality is also a source of stock return volatility, which decreases over a CEO's tenure as the market learns the CEO's quality more accurately. We formally model this idea, and evaluate its implications using a large sample of CEO turnovers in U.S. public firms. Our estimates indicate that there is statistically significant and economically important market learning about CEO ability, even for CEOs whose appointments appear to be unrelated to their predecessors' performance. Also consistent with the learning model is the fact that the learning curve appears to be convex in time, and learning is faster when there is higher ex ante uncertainty about the CEO's ability and more transparency about the firm's prospects. Overall, uncertainty about management quality appears to be an important source of stock return volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Yihui Pan & Tracy Yue Wang & Michael S. Weisbach, 2013. "Learning about CEO Ability and Stock Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18882
    Note: AP CF LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18882.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naveen, Lalitha, 2006. "Organizational Complexity and Succession Planning," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 661-683, September.
    2. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    3. Lubos PÁstor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1790, October.
    4. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    6. Allan G. Timmermann, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-1145.
    7. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    8. Gibbons, Robert & Murphy, Kevin J, 1992. "Optimal Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 468-505, June.
    9. Lucian A. Taylor, 2010. "Why Are CEOs Rarely Fired? Evidence from Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2051-2087, December.
    10. Boot, Arnoud W A, 1992. "Why Hang on to Losers? Divestitures and Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1401-1423, September.
    11. Parrino, Robert, 1997. "CEO turnover and outside succession A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 165-197, November.
    12. C. Edward Fee & Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2013. "Managers with and without Style: Evidence Using Exogenous Variation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 567-601.
    13. Ji-Woong Chung & Berk A. Sensoy & Léa Stern & Michael S. Weisbach, 2012. "Pay for Performance from Future Fund Flows: The Case of Private Equity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(11), pages 3259-3304.
    14. Murphy, Kevin J. & Zimmerman, Jerold L., 1993. "Financial performance surrounding CEO turnover," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-3), pages 273-315, April.
    15. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:11:p:3259-3304 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Bengt Holmström, 1999. "Managerial Incentive Problems: A Dynamic Perspective," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(1), pages 169-182.
    17. Kanodia, C & Bushman, R & Dickhaut, J, 1989. "Escalation Errors And The Sunk Cost Effect - An Explanation Based On Reputation And Information Asymmetries," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 59-77.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hermalin, Benjamin E. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2017. "Assessing Managerial Ability: Implications for Corporate Governance," Working Paper Series 2017-01, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    2. Benjamin E. Hermalin & Michael S. Weisbach, 2014. "Understanding Corporate Governance Through Learning Models of Managerial Competence," NBER Working Papers 20028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kilian Huber & Volker Lindenthal & Fabian Waldinger, 2021. "Discrimination, Managers, and Firm Performance: Evidence from “Aryanizations” in Nazi Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(9), pages 2455-2503.
    4. Yihui Pan & Tracy Yue Wang & Michael S. Weisbach, 2016. "CEO Investment Cycles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(11), pages 2955-2999.
    5. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
    6. Li, Xiaoyang & Low, Angie & Makhija, Anil K., 2017. "Career concerns and the busy life of the young CEO," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 88-109.
    7. Taylor, Lucian A., 2013. "CEO wage dynamics: Estimates from a learning model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 79-98.
    8. Daniel Ferreira & Marcelo Rezende, 2007. "Corporate strategy and information disclosure," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 164-184, March.
    9. Franke, Günter & Lüders, Erik, 2004. "Why Do Asset Prices Not Follow Random Walks?," CoFE Discussion Papers 04/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    10. Franke, Günter & Lüders, Erik, 2006. "Return predictability and stock market crashes in a simple rational expectation models," CoFE Discussion Papers 06/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    11. Sadzik, Tomasz & Woolnough, Chris, 2021. "Snowballing private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Li, Xiaoyang & Low, Angie & Makhija, Anil K., 2011. "Career Concerns and the Busy Life of the Young CEO," Working Paper Series 2011-4, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    13. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
    14. Lüders, Erik & Franke, Günter, 2005. "Return predictability and stock market crashes in a simple rational expectations model," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    15. Adem Atmaz & Suleyman Basak, 2018. "Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1225-1279, June.
    16. Jongha Lim & Berk A. Sensoy & Michael S. Weisbach, 2016. "Indirect Incentives of Hedge Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 871-918, April.
    17. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
    18. Chakraborty, Atreya & Sheikh, Shahbaz & Subramanian, Narayanan, 2009. "The relationship between incentive compensation and performance related CEO turnover," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 295-311, July.
    19. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    20. Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2014. "Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 79-97.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • M12 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Personnel Management; Executives; Executive Compensation
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18882. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.