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Abstract

This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and nonparticipation, and use this connection to analyze both parameters. We apply our analysis to estimate the effect of marginal changes in tuition on the return to going to college.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15211.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15211

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2009-08-02 (All new papers)
• NEP-ECM-2009-08-02 (Econometrics)

References

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1. Hansen, Karsten T. & Heckman, James J. & Mullen, Kathleen J., 2003. "The Effect of Schooling and Ability on Achievement Test Scores," IZA Discussion Papers 826, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
   
   • Hansen, Karsten T. & Heckman, James J. & Mullen, K.J.Kathleen J., 2004. "The effect of schooling and ability on achievement test scores," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 39-98.
   • Karsten Hansen & James J. Heckman & Kathleen J. Mullen, 2003. "The Effect of Schooling and Ability on Achievement Test Scores," NBER Working Papers 9881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   • Hansen, Karsten T & Heckman, James J & Mullen, Kathleen J, 2003. "The effect of schooling and ability on achievement test scores," Working Paper Series 2003:13, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
2. James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 669-738, 05.
   • James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 11259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
3. Jeffrey R. Kling, 2000. "Interpreting Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Returns to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 7989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Kling, Jeffrey R, 2001. "Interpreting Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 358-64, July.
   • Henry S. Farber & Jeffrey R. Kling & Alan Krueger, 1999. "Interpreting Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Returns to Schooling," Working Papers 794, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
4. Newey, Whitney K & Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Efficiency of Weighted Average Derivative Estimators and Index Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1199-223, September.
5. Angrist, Joshua D & Graddy, Kathryn & Imbens, Guido W, 2000. "The Interpretation of Instrumental Variables Estimators in Simultaneous Equations Models with an Application to the Demand for Fish," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 499-527, July.
6. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
   
   • Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
7. David Card, 2000. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," NBER Working Papers 7769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-60, September.
8. Ai, Chunrong & Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Estimation of possibly misspecified semiparametric conditional moment restriction models with different conditioning variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 5-43, November.
9. Edward Vytlacil, 2002. "Independence, Monotonicity, and Latent Index Models: An Equivalence Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 331-341, January.
10. Ichimura, H., 1991. "Semiparametric Least Squares (sls) and Weighted SLS Estimation of Single- Index Models," Papers 264, Minnesota - Center for Economic Research.

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Cited by:

1. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2011. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2754-81, October.
   
   • Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2010. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," NBER Working Papers 16474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   • Pedro Carneiro & James Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2010. "Estimating marginal returns to education," CeMMAP working papers CWP29/10, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
   • Carneiro, Pedro & Heckman, James J. & Vytlacil, Edward, 2010. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," IZA Discussion Papers 5275, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
2. Yingying Dong, 2011. "Jumpy or Kinky? Regression Discontinuity without the Discontinuity," Working Papers 111207, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
   
   • Dong, Yingying, 2010. "Jumpy or Kinky? Regression Discontinuity without the Discontinuity," MPRA Paper 25461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
3. Christian Belzil & J. Hansen & Nicolai Kristensen, 2009. "Estimating complementarity between education and training," Working Papers hal-00365698, HAL.
   
   • Belzil, Christian & Hansen, Jörgen & Kristensen, Nicolai, 2008. "Estimating Complementarity between Education and Training," IZA Discussion Papers 3882, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
4. Schennach, Susanne & White, Halbert & Chalak, Karim, 2012. "Local indirect least squares and average marginal effects in nonseparable structural systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 282-302.
   
   • Susanne Schennach & Halbert White & Karim Chalak, 2007. "Local Indirect Least Squares and Average Marginal Effects in Nonseparable Structural Systems," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 680, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 26 Dec 2009.
5. Christoph Rothe, 2012. "Partial Distributional Policy Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2269-2301, 09.
   
   • Rothe, Christoph, 2011. "Partial Distributional Policy Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 6076, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
6. Morris M. Kleiner & Kyoung Won Park, 2010. "Battles Among Licensed Occupations: Analyzing Government Regulations on Labor Market Outcomes for Dentists and Hygienists," NBER Working Papers 16560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
7. Costas Meghir & Steven Rivkin, 2010. "Econometric methods for research in education," IFS Working Papers W10/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
   
   • Meghir, Costas & Rivkin, Steven, 2011. "Econometric Methods for Research in Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier.
   • Costas Meghir & Steven G. Rivkin, 2010. "Econometric Methods for Research in Education," NBER Working Papers 16003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
8. Alberto Galasso & Mark Schankerman & Carlos J. Serrano, 2011. "Trading and Enforcing Patent Rights," CEP Discussion Papers dp1072, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
9. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2011. "Estimating and Testing Non-Linear Models Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 17039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2011. "Estimating and Testing Non-Linear Models Using Instrumental Variables," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20112, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
10. Karim Chalak & Halbert White, 2007. "An Extended Class of Instrumental Variables for the Estimation of Causal Effects," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 692, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Nov 2009.
11. Dong, Yingying, 2010. "Jumpy or Kinky? Regression Discontinuity without the Discontinuity," MPRA Paper 25427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
12. Alberto Galasso & Mark Schankerman & Carlos J. Serrano, 2011. "Trading and Enforcing Patent Rights," NBER Working Papers 17367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
13. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2011. "Regression Discontinuity Marginal Threshold Treatment Effects," Working Papers 111205, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
14. Susanne Schennach & Halbert White & Karim Chalak, 2007. "Estimating average marginal effects in nonseparable structural systems," CeMMAP working papers CWP31/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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