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Abortion and Crime: A Review

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Author Info
Theodore J. Joyce
Abstract

Ten years have passed since John Donohue and Steven Levitt initially proposed that legalized abortion played a major role in the dramatic decline in crime during the 1990s. Criminologists largely dismiss the association because simple plots of age-specific crime rates are inconsistent with a large cohort affect following the legalization of abortion. Economists, on the other hand, have corrected mistakes in the original analyses, added new data, offered alternative tests and tried to replicate the association in other countries. Donohue and Levitt have responded to each challenge with more data and additional regressions. Making sense of the dueling econometrics has proven difficult for even the most seasoned empiricists. In this paper I review the evidence. I argue that the most straightforward test given available data involves age-specific arrest and homicide rates regressed on lagged abortion rates in the 1970s or indicators of abortion legalization in 1970 and 1973. Such models provide little support for the Donohue and Levitt hypothesis in either the US or the United Kingdom.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15098.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15098

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K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior

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  1. Leo H. Kahane & David Paton & Rob Simmons, 2008. "The Abortion-Crime Link: Evidence from England and Wales," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 1-21, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. John DiNardo, 2007. "Interesting Questions in Freakonomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 973-1000, December.
  3. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors That Explain the Decline and Six That Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Charles, Kerwin Kofi & Stephens, Melvin, Jr, 2006. "Abortion Legalization and Adolescent Substance Use," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 481-505, October.
  5. V. Joseph Hotz & Susan Williams McElroy & Seth G. Sanders, 2005. "Teenage Childbearing and Its Life Cycle Consequences: Exploiting a Natural Experiment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(3). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat & Jonathan Gruber & Phillip B Levine & Douglas Staiger, 2009. "Abortion and Selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 124-136, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ted Joyce, 2009. "A Simple Test of Abortion and Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 112-123, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. John DiNardo, 2006. "Freakonomics: Scholarship in the Service of Storytelling," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 615-626. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ted Joyce, 2004. "Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cristian Pop-Eleches, 2006. "The Impact of an Abortion Ban on Socioeconomic Outcomes of Children: Evidence from Romania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 744-773, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat & Jonathan Gruber & Phillip B. Levine & Douglas Staiger, 2006. "Abortion and Selection," NBER Working Papers 12150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John J. Donohue, III & Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Further Evidence that Legalized Abortion Lowered Crime: A Reply to Joyce," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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