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Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?

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Author Info
Ted Joyce

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the legalization of abortion and subsequent decreases in crime. In a current study, researchers estimate that the legalization of abortion explains over half of the recent decline in national crime rates. The association is identified by correlating changes in crime with changes in the abortion ratio weighted by the proportion of the criminal population exposed to legalized abortion. In this paper, I use an alternative identification strategy. I analyze changes in homicide and arrest rates among teens and young adults born before and after 1970 in states that legalized abortion prior to Roe v. Wade. I compare these changes with variation in homicide and arrest rates among cohorts from the same period but who were unexposed to legalized abortion. I find little evidence to support the claim that legalized abortion caused the reduction in crime. I conclude that the association between abortion and crime is not causal, but most likely the result of confounding from unmeasured period effects such as changes in crack cocaine use and its spillover effects.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8319.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8319

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K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior

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  1. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors That Explain the Decline and Six That Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Theodore J. Joyce, 2006. "Further Tests of Abortion and Crime: A Response to Donohue and Levitt (2001,2004, 2006)," NBER Working Papers 12607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cáceres-Delpiano, Julio & Giolito, Eugenio P., 2008. "The Impact of Unilateral Divorce on Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 3380, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher L. Foote & Christopher F. Goetz, 2005. "Testing economic hypotheses with state-level data: a comment on Donohue and Levitt (2001)," Working Papers 05-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Lott & John Whitley, . "Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and Out-of-Wedlock Births," Yale Law School John M. Olin Center for Studies in Law, Economics, and Public Policy Working Paper Series yale_lepp-1018, Yale Law School John M. Olin Center for Studies in Law, Economics, and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ted Joyce, 2004. "Further Tests of Abortion and Crime," NBER Working Papers 10564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Marianne P. Bitler, 2005. "Effects of Increased Access to Infertility Treatment on Infant and Child Health Outcomes: Evidence from Health Insurance Mandate," Working Papers 330, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Rob Simmons & Leo Kahane & David Paton, 2005. "The abortion-crime link: evidence from England and Wales," Working Papers 003054, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat & Jonathan Gruber & Phillip B. Levine, 2004. "Abortion Legalization and Lifecycle Fertility," NBER Working Papers 10705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat & Jonathan Gruber & Phillip B. Levine & Douglas Staiger, 2006. "Abortion and Selection," NBER Working Papers 12150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Melvin Stephens Jr., 2002. "Abortion Legalization and Adolescent Substance Use," NBER Working Papers 9193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John J. Donohue III & Steven D. Levitt, 2003. "Further Evidence that Legalized Abortion Lowered Crime: A Reply to Joyce," NBER Working Papers 9532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Serkan Ozbeklik, 2006. "The Effect of Abortion Legalization on Teenage Out-Of-Wedlock Childbearing in Future Cohorts," IEPR Working Papers 06.50, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
  14. Roland G. Fryer & Paul S. Heaton & Steven D. Levitt & Kevin M. Murphy, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Crack Cocaine," NBER Working Papers 11318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kendall, Todd & Tamura, Robert, 2008. "Unmarried fertility, crime, and cocial stigma," MPRA Paper 8031, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Gabriel Chequer Hartung & Samuel Pessoa, 2007. "Fatores Demográficos Como Determinantes Da Criminalidade," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 112, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2007. "Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime," NBER Working Papers 13097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Philip J. Cook & John H. Laub, 2001. "After the Epidemic: Recent Trends in Youth Violence in the United States," NBER Working Papers 8571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. John J. Donohue & Steven D. Levitt, 2006. "Measurement Error, Legalized Abortion, and the Decline in Crime: A Response to Foote and Goetz (2005)," NBER Working Papers 11987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Angela K. Dills & Jeffrey A. Miron & Garrett Summers, 2008. "What Do Economists Know About Crime?," NBER Working Papers 13759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Philip J. Cook, 2008. "Assessing Urban Crime And Its Control: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 13781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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