Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand-Theoretic Analysis for Brazil
AbstractWith rapidly declining fertility and increased longevity the age structure of the labor force in developing countries has changed rapidly. Changing relative supply of workers by age group, and by educational attainment, can have profound effects on labor costs. Their impacts on earnings have been heavily studied in the United States but have received little attention in Asia and Latin America, where supply shocks are at least as large and have often proceeded less evenly across the economy. We use data on 502 local Brazilian labor markets from Censuses 1970-2000 to examine the extent of substitution among demographic groups as relative supply has changed. The results suggest that age-education groups are imperfect substitutes, so that larger age-education cohorts see depressed wage rates, particularly among more-educated groups. The extent of substitution has increased over time, so that the decreasing size of the least-skilled labor force today is barely raising its remaining members' wages.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13533.
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2007-10-27 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2007-10-27 (Development)
- NEP-LAB-2007-10-27 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LAM-2007-10-27 (Central & South America)
- NEP-SEA-2007-10-27 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October.
- David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998.
"Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed The Labor Market?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213, November.
- David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1997. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," NBER Working Papers 5956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Autor & Lawrence Katz & Alan Krueger, 1997. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," Working Papers 756, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Gindling, T. H. & Robbins, Donald, 2001. "Patterns and Sources of Changing Wage Inequality in Chile and Costa Rica During Structural Adjustment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 725-745, April.
- George J. Borjas & Richard B. Friedman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 1-90.
- James J. Heckman & Carmen Pagés, 2004.
"Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number heck04-1.
- James Heckman & Carmen Pages, 2003. "Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean," NBER Working Papers 10129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George J. Borjas, 2003.
"The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market,"
NBER Working Papers
9755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374, November.
- Robert K. Triest & Steven A. Sass & Margarita Sapozhnikov, 2006. "Population Aging And The Structure Of Wages," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-5, Center for Retirement Research.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979.
"The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," NBER Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Berger, Mark C, 1985. "The Effect of Cohort Size on Earnings Growth: A Reexamination of the Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 561-73, June.
- James H. Grant & Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1980.
"Labor Market Competition among Youths, White Women, and Others,"
NBER Working Papers
0519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grant, James H & Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1981. "Labor Market Competition among Youths, White Women and Others," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 354-60, August.
- David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Jaime Saavedra & Mhmo Torero, 2004. "Labor Market Reforms and Their Impact over Formal Labor Demand and Job Market Turnover. The Case of Peru," NBER Chapters, in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 131-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví & Máximo Torero, 2000. "Labor Market Reforms and Their Impact on Formal Labor Demand and Job Market Turnover: The Case of Peru," Research Department Publications 3095, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Mardukhi, Jian, 2010. "The General Equilibrium Wage Impact of Trade-Induced Shifts in Industrial Compositions of Employment in Brazilian Cities, 1991-2000," MPRA Paper 25916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.