The Changing Relationship Between Aggregate Price and Output: The British Experience
AbstractOver the past two and a half decades Great Britain has exhibited the most noticeable increase in inflation variability among the ten major noncommunist industrialized countries. In addition, there has been an apparent worsening in the output-inflation tradeoff. This paper attempts to identify and empirically assess possible causes of the deterioration in the British output-inflation tradeoff in the context of a new classical-type model. Supply-side shocks can cause an increase in the inflation rate and a decrease in real output, and it is estimatedthat such shocks interacted with inflation variability to reduce real output roughly 3.3 percent between the period 1957-1968 and the period 1969-1980. Also contributing to the deterioration in the output-inflation tradeoff, it is estimated that the decline in the natural rate of real output due to inflation variability (as hypothesized by Milton Friedman) amounted to about 2.3 to 2.5 percent between these two subperiods.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1134.
Date of creation: Jul 1984
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1984. "The Changing Relationship between Aggregate Price and Output: The British Experience," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(201), pages 53-67, February.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-21, May.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "A Reexamination of Natural Rate Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 946-60, December.
- Alberro, Jose, 1981. "The Lucas hypothesis on the Phillips Curve : Further international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 239-250.
- Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1980. "Further International Evidence of Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 409-21, June.
- Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1980. "Inflation Uncertainty and the Phillips Curve: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1022-27, December.
- Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Unemployment, Industrial Production, and Inflation Uncertainty in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 163-69, May.
- Nelson, Charles R, 1979.
"Recursive Structure in U.S. Income, Prices, and Output,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1307-27, December.
- Charles R. Nelson, 1976. "Recursive structure in U.S. income, prices and output," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 2-32.
- John A. James, 1985. "Shifts in the Nineteenth-Century Phillips Curve Relationship," NBER Working Papers 1587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1988.
"Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm,"
NBER Working Papers
2109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen, 2004. "Macroeconomic rationality and Lucas' misperceptions model: further evidence from 41 countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 227-241.
- Nicholas Aspergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2003. "Macroeconomic Rationality and Lucas' Misperceptions Model: Further Evidence from Forty-One Countries," Working papers 2003-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.