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Effects of U.S. Monetary Restraint on the DM-$ Exchange Rate and the German Economy

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  • Jacques R. Artus
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    Abstract

    This paper assesses the quantitative effects of a shift to monetary restraint in the United States on the DM-$ exchange rate and the German economy. The results indicate that such effects are large. If Germany keeps its money growth unchanged, it will tend to experience a sharp and sustained depreciation of the deutsche mark and a significant increase in inflation and in unemployment. If it adopts an equivalent policy of monetary restraint, it will tend to benefit from a marked decline in inflation, but the cost in terms of lost output is extremely large.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0926.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0926.

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    Date of creation: Jul 1982
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    Publication status: published as Artus, Jacques R. "Effects of U.S. Monetary Restraint on the DM-$ Exchange Rate and the Germany Economy." Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, ed. by John F. O. Bilson and Richard C. Marston. Chicago UCP. (1984).
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0926

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    1. William H. Branson & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1981. "International adjustment with wage rigidity," NBER Chapters, in: International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 309-332 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Barro, Robert J., 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Scholarly Articles 3450988, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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