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Does Purchasing Power Parity Work?

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Michael R. Darby

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Abstract

The logarithm of the purchasing power ratio (PPR) is shown for seven countries and three alternative price indices to follow a stationary and invertible process in the first differences. This means that permanent shifts in the parity value accumulate over time. Therefore, as the prediction interval lengthens, the variance of the level of the PPR goes towards infinity while the variance of its average growth rate goes to zero. Since the variance of the permanent shifts is substantial: (1) Harmonized money growth cannot maintain constant exchange rates; reserve flows feedback is required. (2) Economic explanations of the permanent shifts are an important research topic.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0607.

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Date of creation: Dec 1980
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0607

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  1. Charles Pigott, 1981. "The influence of real factors on exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 37-54. [Downloadable!]
  2. Daniel Gros, 1989. "On the volatility of exchange rates: Tests of monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 273-295, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Katja Funke & Isabell Koske, 2008. "Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? A Panel Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 11-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Pippenger, 1986. "Arbitrage and efficient markets interpretations of purchasing power parity: theory and evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 31-47. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mauro S. Ferreira, 2007. "Capturing asymmetry in real exchange rate with quantile autoregression," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td306, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ronald MacDonald, 1985. "Are deviations from purchasing power parity efficient? Some further answers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 638-645, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Craig S. Hakkio, 1982. "A Reexamination of Purchasing Power Parity: A Multicountry and Multiperiod Study," NBER Working Papers 0865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," NBER Working Papers 5006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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