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Does Purchasing Power Parity Work?

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  • Michael R. Darby

Abstract

The logarithm of the purchasing power ratio (PPR) is shown for seven countries and three alternative price indices to follow a stationary and invertible process in the first differences. This means that permanent shifts in the parity value accumulate over time. Therefore, as the prediction interval lengthens, the variance of the level of the PPR goes towards infinity while the variance of its average growth rate goes to zero. Since the variance of the permanent shifts is substantial: (1) Harmonized money growth cannot maintain constant exchange rates; reserve flows feedback is required. (2) Economic explanations of the permanent shifts are an important research topic.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0607.

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Date of creation: Dec 1980
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Publication status: published as Michael R. Darby, 1981. "Does purchasing power parity work?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 136-173.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0607

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Cited by:
  1. Katja Funke & Isabell Koske, 2008. "Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? A Panel Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 11-24, February.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-052, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Ronald MacDonald, 1985. "Are deviations from purchasing power parity efficient? Some further answers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 638-645, December.
  4. Charles Pigott, 1981. "The influence of real factors on exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 37-54.
  5. Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Purchasing power parity (PPP) between South Africa and her main currency exchange partners: Evidence from asymmetric unit root tests and threshold co-integration analysis," MPRA Paper 53659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. John Pippenger, 1986. "Arbitrage and efficient markets interpretations of purchasing power parity: theory and evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 31-47.
  7. Gouriéroux, Christian & Peaucelle, Irina, 1992. "Séries codépendantes : application à l’hypothèse de parité du pouvoir d’achat," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 283-304, mars et j.
  8. Daniel Gros, 1989. "On the volatility of exchange rates: Tests of monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 273-295, June.
  9. Craig S. Hakkio, 1982. "A Reexamination of Purchasing Power Parity: A Multicountry and Multiperiod Study," NBER Working Papers 0865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kamrul Hassan & Ruhul Salim, 2011. "The linkage between relative population growth and purchasing power parity: Cross country evidence," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 154-169, July.
  11. Sundar, Cuddalore & Varela, Oscar & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1997. "Black market and official exchange rates, cointegration and purchasing power parity in developing Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
  12. Mauro S. Ferreira, 2007. "Capturing asymmetry in real exchange rate with quantile autoregression," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td306, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.

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