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The Adjustment Mechanism

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Maurice Obstfeld

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Abstract

This paper studies the mechanisms of international payments adjustment at work under the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, 1945 to 1971. I argue that two market failures, imperfect international capital mobility and imperfect wage-price flexibility, are central to understanding the adjustment problems of that period. Imperfect capital mobility implied that even intertemporally solvent governments could face international liquidity constraints. Wage-price inflexibility implied that countries suffering from simultaneous reserve loss and unemployment might need to undergo lengthy transitions before returning to balance. By the 1960s, when trade had been substantially liberalized and partial convertibility restored, the main remaining adjustment weapon was currency realignment: devaluation could eliminate an unemployment-cum-deficit dilemma in a stroke, while revaluation could relieve the inflationary pressures in surplus countries. The currency-realignment option proved incompatible with the growing efficiency of the international capital market, however. Under the classical gold standard, high capital mobility had supported the credibility of fixed exchange rates. Under Bretton Woods fixed gold parities did not have primacy among other economic objectives; and increasing capital mobility undermined the regime as governments proved unwilling to stand by key systemic commitments.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3943.

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Date of creation: Jan 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3943

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barry Eichengreen., 1989. "The Gold Standard Since Alec Ford," Economics Working Papers 89-120, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1980. "Imperfect asset substitutability and monetary policy under fixed exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 177-200, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Charles L. Schultze, 1981. "Some Macro Foundations for Micro Theory," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 521-592. [Downloadable!]
  6. Persson, Torsten, 1984. "Real transfers in fixed exchange rate systems and the international adjustment mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 349-369, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian & Arthur E. Gandolfi & Anna J. Schwartz & Alan C. Stockman, 1983. "The International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number darb83-1.
  8. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bewley, Truman, 1983. "A Difficulty with the Optimum Quantity of Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1485-504, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Grilli, Vittorio, 1990. "Managing exchange rate crises: evidence from the 1890s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 258-275, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michael D. Bordo & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "The gold standard as a rule," Working Paper 9205, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Japan's Saving Rate: New Data and Reflections," NBER Working Papers 3205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 865-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-59, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-84, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Meese, Richard A., 1984. "Is the sticky price assumption reasonable for exchange rate models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 131-139, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Laney, Leroy O. & Willett, Thomas D., 1982. "The international liquidity explosion and worldwide inflation: The evidence from sterilization coefficient estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 141-152, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Foley, Duncan K & Hellwig, Martin F, 1975. "Asset Management with Trading Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(3), pages 327-46, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1999. "Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 5960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael D. Bordo, 2005. "Historical Perspective on Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 11383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hans-Joachim Voth, 2003. "Convertibility, currency controls and the cost of capital in Western Europe, 1950-1999," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 255-276. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbifs Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bernhard Eschweiler & Michael D. Bordo, 1995. "Rules, Discretion, and Central Bank Independence: The German Experience 1880-1989," NBER Working Papers 4547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "The Rise and Fall of a Barbarous Relic: The Role of Gold in the International Monetary SYstem," NBER Working Papers 6436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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