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A Forest-Profit Expectations Dataset for New Zealand, 1990–2008

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Author Info

  • Alex Olssen

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Wei Zhang

    () (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry)

  • David Evison

    () (New Zealand School of Forestry, University of Canterbury)

  • Suzi Kerr

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

In this paper, we construct a dataset of annual expected forest profits in New Zealand from 1990–2008 at a fine spatial resolution. We do not include land values in any of our profit calculations. We estimate four measures of expected forest profits based around net present value (NPV), land expectation value (LEV), equal annual equivalent (EAE), and internal rate of return (IRR). Our estimates of expected profits are based on the assumption that land owners form their expectations adaptively; that is, they use recent data on prices and costs to form expectations. We illustrate our data by showing regional variation in each of our measures, changes over time in NPV on land in forest in 2008, and variation in NPV over space in 2008. The final dataset, working datasets, and the code used in this work are publicly available to the research community and can be accessed from the authors’ website: http://www.motu.org.nz/building-capacity/dataset/u10073_forest_profit_expectations_dataset.

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File URL: http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/12_07.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 12_07.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_07

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Keywords: Forestry; expected profits; expected investment returns; New Zealand; dataset;

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  1. Parks Peter J., 1995. "Explaining Irrational Land Use: Risk Aversion and Marginal Agricultural Land," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 34-47, January.
  2. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2007. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," NBER Working Papers 13572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
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