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Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

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  • Han Lin Shang

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), we compare the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2012-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
    7. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Joanne Ellison & Erengul Dodd & Jonathan J. Forster, 2020. "Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 829-856, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Functional data analysis; functional principal component analysis; forecast accuracy comparison; random walk with drift; random walk; ARIMA model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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