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Microsimulations in the Presence of Heterogeneity

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  • Constantijn W.A. Panis

    (RAND)

Abstract

This paper develops a method that improves researchers’ ability to account for behavioral responses to policy change in microsimulation models. Current microsimulation models are relatively simple, in part because of the technical difficulty of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. This is all the more problematic because data constraints typically force researchers to limit their forecasting models to relatively few, mostly time-invariant explanatory covariates, so that much of the variation across individuals is unobserved. Furthermore, failure to account for unobservables often leads to biased estimates of structural parameters, which are critically important for measuring behavioral responses. This paper develops a theoretical approach to incorporate (univariate and multivariate) unobserved heterogeneity into microsimulation models; illustrates computer algorithms to efficiently implement heterogeneity in continuous and limited dependent models; and evaluates the importance of unobserved heterogeneity by conducting Monte Carlo simulations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center in its series Working Papers with number wp048.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp048

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  1. Tjalling C. Koopmans & Martin J. Beckmann, 1955. "Assignment Problems and the Location of Economic Activities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 4, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Jakob Roland Munch & Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2006. "Home Ownership, Job Duration, and Wages," Economics Working Papers 2006-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Matteo G. Richiardi, 2012. "Forecasting with Unobserved Heterogeneity," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 123, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.

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