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Dynamiques de pauvreté en Russie : une analyse en termes d'entrées et sorties à l'aide des modèles de durée

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  • Matthieu Clément

    ()
    (GED, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

La pauvreté en Russie est un phénomène principalement transitoire, signifiant par là même l'existence de nombreux mouvements d'entrées et sorties dans/de de la pauvreté. L'analyse des dynamiques de pauvreté requiert par conséquent d'évaluer des probabilités de transition. A cet égard, les modèles de durée offre certaines promesses dans la mesure où ils visent à évaluer la probabilité d'occurrence d'un évènement conditionnelle à la durée passée dans un état particulier. Cet article utilise les données longitudinales des enquêtes Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey afin d'étudier les transitions de pauvreté en Russie entre 1994 et 2000 à l'aide des modèles de durée. Dans un premier temps, l'estimation des probabilités de transition à l'aide d'une méthode non paramétrique montre que les taux d'entrée et de sortie dépendent négativement de la durée des épisodes de non pauvreté et de pauvreté. De plus, même si les taux de sortie sont supérieurs aux taux d'entrée, l'importance des taux de retour dans la pauvreté suggère que la plupart du temps, les sorties ne sont pas définitives. Dans un second temps, nous estimons des modèles logistiques à temps discret, séparément pour les sorties et les entrées, afin d'identifier les facteurs associés aux transitions de pauvreté. Les résultats indiquent d'une part que les caractéristiques du marché du travail sont cruciales dans l'explication des entrées dans la pauvreté, mais ont moins d'influence sur les sorties. D'autre part, nous soulignons la situation paradoxale des ménages de retraités en montrant qu'ils ont une probabilité de rester pauvres plus élevée que la moyenne, mais présente un risque d'entrée dans la pauvreté moindre. Enfin, nous introduisons dans les modèles des variables censées rendre compte de l'influence du comportement stratégique des ménages et insistons sur la distinction entre stratégies de promotion et stratégies de prévention. A titre d'illustration, les résultats indiquent que l'accès à la terre facilite les sorties de pauvreté alors que les transferts publics sont décisifs pour protéger les ménages faisant face à un risque d'entrée dans la pauvreté. Poverty in Russia is mainly a transitory phenomenon which means that there are a lot of transitions in and out of poverty. As a consequence, the analysis of poverty dynamics requires to evaluate transition probabilities. In this respect, duration models offer some promises in so far as they aim at measuring the probability of occurence of an event, conditional at the duration spent in a particular state. This paper uses longitudinal data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to study poverty transitions in Russia between 1994 and 2000, using duration analysis. In a first time, the estimation of transition rates for Russia with a non parametric method show that exit and entry rates depend negatively on poverty and non poverty spells duration. Moreover, even if exit rates are higher than entry rates, the importance of reentry rates suggest that most of the time, poverty exits are not definitive. In a second time, we estimate logistic discrete-time models, separately for poverty exits and poverty entries, in order to identify factors which are associated with poverty transitions. On the one hand, the results indicate that labour market characteristics are crucial in the explanation of poverty entries but have less influence on poverty exits. On the other hand, we point out the paradoxal situation of elderly people showing that they have more risk to stay in poverty than other people but less risk to enter it. Finally we introduce variables which take into account the strategic behaviour of households and insist on the distinction between promotion strategies and protection strategies. As an example, the results show that land access facilitate poverty exit whereas public transfers are decisive in order to prevent households falling into poverty. (Full text in french)

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Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 106.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:106

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  1. Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Issues in Measuring and Modelling Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1328-43, September.
  2. John Iceland, 1997. "Urban labor markets and individual transitions out of poverty," Demography, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 429-441, August.
  3. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1994. "The Dynamics of Poverty Spells: Updating Bane and Ellwood," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 34-37, May.
  4. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  5. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567.
  6. Klugman, Jeni & Braithwaite, Jeanine, 1998. "Poverty in Russia during the Transition: An Overview," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 13(1), pages 37-58, February.
  7. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  8. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-33, May.
  9. Mroz, Thomas A & Popkin, Barry M, 1995. "Poverty and the Economic Transition in the Russian Federation," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-31, October.
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