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Pseudocontingencies: an integrative account of an intriguing cognitive illusion

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  • Fiedler, Klaus
  • Freytag, Peter
  • Meiser, Thorsten

Abstract

The term pseudocontingency (PC) denotes the logically unwarranted inference of a contingency between two variables X and Y from information other than pairs of xi, yi observations, namely, the variables’ univariate baserates as assessed in one or more ecological contexts. We summarize recent experimental evidence, showing that PCs can play a pivotal role in many areas of judgment and decision making. We argue that the exploitation of the informational value of baserates underlying PCs offers an alternative perspective on many phenomena in the realm of adaptive cognition that have been studied in isolation so far. Although PCs can lead to serious biases under some conditions, they afford an efficient strategy for inductive inference making in probabilistic environments that render baserate information, rather than genuine covariation information, readily available.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiedler, Klaus & Freytag, Peter & Meiser, Thorsten, 2008. "Pseudocontingencies: an integrative account of an intriguing cognitive illusion," Papers 08-36, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2339
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    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2339/1/dp08_36.pdf
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    1. Kahneman, Daniel & Knetsch, Jack L., 1992. "Valuing public goods: The purchase of moral satisfaction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-70, January.
    2. Fiedler, Klaus & Walther, Eva & Freytag, Peter & Plessner, Henning, 2002. "Judgment Biases in a Simulated Classroom--A Cognitive-Environmental Approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 527-561, May.
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