IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mlb/wpaper/770.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Collective Bargaining and Central Bank Independence on Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence From the OECD

Author

Listed:
  • Chou, Y.K.

Abstract

In this paper, panel data from 15 OECD countries (1971-1990) are used to test the hypothesis that differences in monetary and labour market institutions explain a significant portion of the surprisingly diverse inflation and unemployment experiences among similarly developed economies. As an alternative to the measures of centralization of wage bargaining and corporatism used in previous studies, a Hefindahl index of union concentration is used as a proxy for the degree of coordination failure extant in wage setting. Additional explanatory variables used include union density, union coverage and the level of wage bargaining. We observe that inflation has a hump-shaped relationship with central bank independence and union density, as well as a negative relationship with union concentration, while unemployment has a U-shaped relationship with union density, and a hump-shaped relationship with union concentration and central bank independence. These findings are largely robust to the use of alternative estimators and assumptions on the structure of the error term. Further results are obtained from stratifying the sample by central bank independence and union concentration. These are then compared with the contrasting predictions of two recent theoretical models. Finally, we show that high union concentration is associated with smaller deviations of actual inflation rates from predicted rates in the aftermath of the 1973-74 OPEC price shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Chou, Y.K., 2000. "The Effect of Collective Bargaining and Central Bank Independence on Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence From the OECD," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 770, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-00-01/770.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1, March.
    4. Soskice, David, 1990. "Wage Determination: The Changing Role of Institutions in Advanced Industrialized Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 36-61, Winter.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    7. Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084, Elsevier.
    8. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 1999. "Central bank independence, centralization of wage bargaining, inflation and unemployment:: Theory and some evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1395-1434, June.
    9. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1997. "Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 335-362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bean, Charles R., 1994. "European unemployment: A retrospective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 523-534, April.
    11. Lijphart, Arend & Crepaz, Markus M. L., 1991. "Corporatism and Consensus Democracy in Eighteen Countries: Conceptual and Empirical Linkages," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 235-246, April.
    12. Peter Dolton & Martin Robson, 1996. "Trade Union Concentration and the Determination of Wages: The Case of Teachers in England and Wales," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 539-555, December.
    13. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    14. Robert J. Flanagan, 1999. "Macroeconomic Performance and Collective Bargaining: An International Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1150-1175, September.
    15. Fuller, Wayne A. & Battese, George E., 1974. "Estimation of linear models with crossed-error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 67-78, May.
    16. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, March.
    17. Newell, A. & Symons, J. S. V., 1987. "Corporatism, laissez-faire and the rise in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 567-601, April.
    18. Edward J. Amadeo, 1994. "Institutions, Inflation and Unemployment," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 10.
    19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    20. Cubitt, Robin P, 1995. " Corporatism, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Performance: A Simple Game Theoretic Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(2), pages 245-259, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. C. Bowdler & L. Nunziata, 2007. "Trade Union Density and Inflation Performance: Evidence from OECD Panel Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(293), pages 135-159, February.
    2. Cavallero, Alessandro, 2011. "The convergence of inflation rates in the EU-12 area: A distribution dynamics approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 341-357, June.
    3. Chou, Y.K., 2001. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence and Union Concentration on Macroeconomic Perfromance in the Presence of Aggregate Supply Shocks. Evidence from 10 OECD Countries (1971-85)," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 805, The University of Melbourne.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chou, Y.K., 2001. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence and Union Concentration on Macroeconomic Perfromance in the Presence of Aggregate Supply Shocks. Evidence from 10 OECD Countries (1971-85)," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 805, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 1999. "Central bank independence, centralization of wage bargaining, inflation and unemployment:: Theory and some evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1395-1434, June.
    3. Aidt, T.S. & Tzannatos, Z., 2005. "The Cost and Benefits of Collective Bargaining," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0541, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Jerger, Jurgen, 2002. "Socially optimal monetary policy institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 761-781, November.
    5. Christoph S. Weber, 2020. "The unemployment effect of central bank transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2947-2975, December.
    6. Weymark, Diana N., 2007. "Inflation, government transfers, and optimal central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 297-315, February.
    7. Chouliarakis, George & Correa-López, Mónica, 2011. "Monetary institutions, imperfect competition and employment outcomes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 131-148, August.
    8. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Peter Mooslechner & Martin Schürz, 2001. "The Interaction of Wage Bargaining Institutions and an Independent Central Bank – A Methodological Reflection on Current Theories," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 487-506, December.
    10. Cuciniello Vincenzo, 2008. "The effects of macroeconomic institutions on economic performance in a general equilibrium model," wp.comunite 0036, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    11. Robert Franzese, 2001. "Strategic Interactions of Monetary Policymakers and Wage/Price Bargainers: A Review with Implications for the European Common-Currency Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 457-486, December.
    12. Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Debt, inflation and central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-150.
    13. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2011. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3690, CESifo.
    14. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Truc, Alexandre, 2023. "An independent European macroeconomics? A history of European macroeconomics through the lens of the European Economic Review," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Fahim Marhubi, 2023. "Impact of Gender Discrimination Laws on Inflation: Evidence from Panel Data," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(3), pages 99-109, August.
    16. Posso, Alberto & Tawadros, George B., 2013. "Does greater central bank independence really lead to lower inflation? Evidence from panel data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 244-247.
    17. Hein, Eckhard, 2001. "Institutions and macroeconomic performance: Central bank independence, labour market institutions and the perspectives for inflation and employment in the European Monetary Union," WSI Working Papers 95, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    18. Markus Knell, 2002. "Wage Formation in Open Economies and the Role of Monetary and Wage-Setting Institutions," Working Papers 63, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    19. Cuciniello, Vincenzo, 2009. "The impact of fiscal-monetary policy interactions on government size and macroeconomic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 918-925, September.
    20. Kenneth Scheve, 2003. "Public demand for low inflation," Bank of England working papers 172, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BANKS ; INFLATION ; WAGES ; LABOUR MARKET;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dandapani Lokanathan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.