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Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

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  • Carlos Bozzoli

    ()

  • Tilman Brück

    ()

  • Tony Muhumuza

    ()

Abstract

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

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File URL: http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP40_CB_TB_TM.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict in its series Research Working Papers with number 40.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:40

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  1. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Andy Sumner & Richard Mallett, 2013. "Capturing Multidimensionality: What does a Human Wellbeing Conceptual Framework Add to the Analysis of Vulnerability?," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 671-690, September.
  2. Giacomo De Luca & Marijke Verpoorten, 2011. "From Vice to Virtue? Civil War and Social Capital in Uganda," HiCN Working Papers 111, Households in Conflict Network.

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