IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mae/wpaper/2011-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Anita Angelovska Bezoska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Jane Bogoev

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Ana Mitreska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Maja Kadievska Vojnovik

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract

The main aim of this research is to investigate the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy with respect to output gap fluctuations in the Republic of Macedonia during the period 1991-2009. We use two different fiscal policy measures: 1) the cyclically unadjusted primary budget balance and 2) the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance as a proxy indicator of the fiscal policy stance. This analysis also aims to explore whether there was a substantial change in the fiscal policy behavior prior to 1996 due to the turbulent initial period of transition and the switch in monetary policy strategy. We additionally control for other factors that also seem to have had a significant impact over the fiscal policy behavior, such as the armed conflict in 2001 and the impact of public debt as a proxy indicator of budget financing constraints. The estimated results with respect to both measures, the cyclically unadjusted and cyclically adjusted budget balance, indicate differences in the fiscal policy behavior prior to and after 1996. More precisely, the results imply that the fiscal policy behavior prior to 1996 was procyclical, whereas afterwards the fiscal policy became countercyclical. These results are robust to different measures of the output gap and different frequency of the data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Anita Angelovska Bezoska & Jane Bogoev & Ana Mitreska & Maja Kadievska Vojnovik, 2011. "Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition," Working Papers 2011-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, revised 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2011-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nbrm.mk/WBStorage/Files/WebBuilder_CroatianEconomicSurveyVol13No1pp57_104.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    4. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053.
    6. Michel Strawczynski & Josheph Zeira, 2007. "Cyclicality of fiscal policy in Israel," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 5(1), pages 47-66.
    7. Gábor P. Kiss & Zoltán Reppa, 2010. "Quo vadis, deficit? How high the tax level will be when the economic cycle reverses?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 5(3), pages 47-56, October.
    8. Badinger, Harald, 2010. "Output volatility and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 15-18, January.
    9. Oecd, 2003. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," Sigma Public Management Profiles 11, OECD Publishing.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different?," IMF Working Papers 2010/068, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bogdan Bogdanov, 2010. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle: an Empirical Study on Developed and Developing Countries," Working paper series 12010en, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
    12. Hall, Alastair R., 2004. "Generalized Method of Moments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775201, Decembrie.
    13. Adrian R Pagan & Anthony D Hall, 1983. "Diagnostic tests as residual analysis," Published Paper Series 1983-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Mackiewicz, Michał, 2008. "Determinants of Cyclicality of Fiscal Surpluses in The OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 16034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2015. "Fiscal or monetary dominance in a small, open economy with fixed exchange rate – the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 125-145.
    2. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    3. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2014. "The Transmission Mechanism And Consequences From The Global Economic Crisis For The Macedonian Economy," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 55-69, December.
    4. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 747-767, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    2. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    3. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2011. "Siklikalitas Kebijakan Fiskal Di Indonesia [cyclicality of fiscal policy in Indonesia]," MPRA Paper 65607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aline Gadelha & José Angelo Divino, 2021. "Institutions and Cyclicality of the Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(4), pages 1-25, April.
    5. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Sangita Misra & Rajiv Ranjan, 2018. "Fiscal rules and procyclicality: an empirical analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 207-228, December.
    7. Hoda Youssef & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2018. "Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy," Working Papers 1175, Economic Research Forum, revised 29 Mar 2008.
    8. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    9. João T. Jalles, 2022. "Do credit rating agencies reward fiscal prudence?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 2-22, April.
    10. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2013. "Optimal fiscal policy and different degrees of access to international capital markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 336-352.
    11. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Aurel IANCU & Dan Constantin OLTEANU, 2022. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Policies in Non-Euro EU Member Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 188-205, October.
    13. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
    14. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2016. "Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 650-670, October.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    16. Cusato Novelli, Antonio & Barcia, Giancarlo, 2021. "Sovereign Risk, Public Investment and the Fiscal Policy Stance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Mr. Alexander D Klemm, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2014/059, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Asif Ahmad & Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2021. "Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1687-1701, October.
    20. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; cyclically adjusted balance; output gap; monetary policy change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2011-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jovica Mitik (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbrgvmk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.