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Dynamics of Political Systems

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  • Buchheim, Lukas
  • Ulbricht, Robert

Abstract

We develop a model of regime dynamics that embeds the principal transition scenarios examined by the literature. Political systems are a priori unrestricted and dynamics emerge through the combination and interaction of transition events over time. The model attributes a key role to beliefs held by political outsiders about the vulnerability of regimes, governing the likelihood and outcome of transitions. In equilibrium, transition likelihoods are declining in a regime's maturity,generating episodes of political stability alternating with rapid successions of revolts, counter revolts, and reforms. The stationary distribution of regimes is bimodal. The model dynamics match the data remarkably well.

Suggested Citation

  • Buchheim, Lukas & Ulbricht, Robert, 2015. "Dynamics of Political Systems," Discussion Papers in Economics 26928, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:26928
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Critical junctures; democratization; invariant distribution; iron law of oligarchy; regime dynamics; revolts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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