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It is Harder, not Easier, to Predict the Winner of the Champions League

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  • Jeroen Schokkaert
  • Johan Swinnen

Abstract

European Cup football has experienced a major change in format with the introduction of the Champions League in 1992 and a major change in admission rules with direct qualification for multiple teams from the highest ranked leagues in 1999. We show that, in line with popular press reports and other studies, qualification in lower rounds has become more predictable in the Champions League. At the same time, however, outcomes at later stages have become less predictable. We provide evidence and an explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen Schokkaert & Johan Swinnen, 2013. "It is Harder, not Easier, to Predict the Winner of the Champions League," LICOS Discussion Papers 32913, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    • Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:32913
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    File URL: http://feb.kuleuven.be/drc/licos/publications/dp/dp329.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Green, Colin & Lozano, Fernando & Simmons, Rob, 2015. "Rank-order tournaments, probability of winning and investing in talent: evidence from champions' league qualifying rules," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 232, pages 30-40, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Champions League; European Cup; Sports Tournaments; Uncertainty of Outcome;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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