The Euro Debt Crisis and Germany's Euro Trilemma
AbstractThis paper investigates the causes behind the euro debt crisis, particularly Germany's role in it. It is argued that the crisis is not primarily a "sovereign debt crisis" but rather a (twin) banking and balance of payments crisis. Intra-area competitiveness and current account imbalances, and the corresponding debt flows that such imbalances give rise to, are at the heart of the matter, and they ultimately go back to competitive wage deflation on Germany's part since the late 1990s. Germany broke the golden rule of a monetary union: commitment to a common inflation rate. As a result, the country faces a trilemma of its own making and must make a critical choice, since it cannot have it all--perpetual export surpluses, a no transfer / no bailout monetary union, and a "clean," independent central bank. Misdiagnosis and the wrongly prescribed medication of austerity have made the situation worse by adding a growth crisis to the potpourri of internal stresses that threaten the euro's survival. The crisis in Euroland poses a global "too big to fail" threat, and presents a moral hazard of perhaps unprecedented scale to the global community.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_721.
Date of creation: May 2012
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Web page: http://www.levyinstitute.org
Euro; Monetary Union; Banking Crisis; Balance-of-Payments Crisis; Sovereign Debt Crisis; Competitiveness Imbalances; Fiscal Transfers; Bailouts; Austerity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-05-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-05-22 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-05-22 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2012-05-22 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PKE-2012-05-22 (Post Keynesian Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Naohiko Baba & Robert N McCauley & Srichander Ramaswamy, 2009. "US dollar money market funds and non-US banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
- Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2013.
"Global and euro imbalances: China and Germany,"
BIS Working Papers
424, Bank for International Settlements.
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