Can Portugal Escape Stagnation without Opting Out from the Eurozone?
AbstractThe creation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has not brought significant gains to the Portuguese economy in terms of real convergence with wealthier eurozone countries. We analyze the causes of the underperformance of the Portuguese economy in the last decade, discuss its growth prospects within the EMU, and make two proposals for urgent institutional reform of the EMU. We argue that, under the prevailing institutional framework, Portugal faces a long period of stagnation, high unemployment, and painful structural reform, and conclude that, in the absence of institutional reform of the EMU, getting out of the eurozone represents a serious political option for Portugal.
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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Nominal Wage Cuts; Eurozone; Relative Unit Labor Costs; Zero-sum Game;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2011-04-09 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-09 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PKE-2011-04-09 (Post Keynesian Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010.
"Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect,"
Annual Review of Economics,
Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, 09.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," CEPR Discussion Papers 7824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," CEP Discussion Papers dp0986, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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