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Can Portugal Escape Stagnation without Opting Out from the Eurozone?

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  • Pedro Leao
  • Alfonso Palacio-Vera
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    Abstract

    The creation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has not brought significant gains to the Portuguese economy in terms of real convergence with wealthier eurozone countries. We analyze the causes of the underperformance of the Portuguese economy in the last decade, discuss its growth prospects within the EMU, and make two proposals for urgent institutional reform of the EMU. We argue that, under the prevailing institutional framework, Portugal faces a long period of stagnation, high unemployment, and painful structural reform, and conclude that, in the absence of institutional reform of the EMU, getting out of the eurozone represents a serious political option for Portugal.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_664.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_664

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    Related research

    Keywords: Nominal Wage Cuts; Eurozone; Relative Unit Labor Costs; Zero-sum Game;

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    1. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency unions in prospect and retrospect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28738, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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