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The currency union effect on trade is decreasing over time

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  • de Sousa, José

Abstract

Estimating a theoretical gravity model over a sixty-year period, from 1948 to 2009, I found an unexpected trend: the currency union impact on trade is decreasing over time. This result suggests that with trade and financial globalization, currency unions become less and less important for promoting trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 917-920

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:3:p:917-920

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Related research

Keywords: Currency unions; Dollarization; Trade; Gravity; Poisson;

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References

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  1. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
  2. Yotov, Yoto, 2012. "A Simple Solution to the Distance Puzzle in International Trade," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-6, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  3. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, 09.
  4. Anne-Celia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade," Working Papers 21709, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  5. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer & John Ries, 2011. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  7. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  8. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  9. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  10. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "On the impact of a common currency on bilateral trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 125-129, April.
  11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  12. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Douglas L. Campbell, 2013. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1278-1293, October.
  2. Yotov, Yoto V., 2012. "A simple solution to the distance puzzle in international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 794-798.
  3. Dorn, Sabrina & Egger, Peter H., 2013. "Fixed currency regimes and the time pattern of trade effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 120-123.
  4. Arvis, Jean-François & Duval, Yann & Shepherd, Ben & Utoktham,Chorthip, 2013. "Trade costs in the developing world : 1995 - 2010," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6309, The World Bank.
  5. Escaith, Hubert & Gaudin, Hadrien, 2014. "Clustering Value-Added Trade: Structural and Policy Dimensions," MPRA Paper 57276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Stephan Klasen & Florian Johannsen, 2013. "Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports and German Employment? A Sectoral-Level Analysis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 227, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research, revised 18 Dec 2013.
  7. Baghdadi, Leila & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Zitouna, Habib, 2013. "Are RTA agreements with environmental provisions reducing emissions?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 378-390.

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