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Asia and the Global Crisis: Recovery Prospects and the Future

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  • Jesus Felipe
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    Abstract

    The global crisis of 2007–09 affected developing Asia largely through a decline in exports to the developed countries and a slowdown in remittances. This happened very quickly, and by 2009 there were already signs of recovery (except on the employment front). This recovery was led by China’s impressive performance, aided by a large stimulus package and easy credit. But China needs to make efforts toward rebalancing its economy. Although private consumption has increased at a fast pace during the last decades, investment has done so at an even faster pace, with the consequence that the share of consumption in total output is very low. The risk is that the country may fall into an underconsumption crisis. Looking at the medium and long term, developing Asia’s future is mixed. There is one group of countries with a highly diversified export basket. These countries have an excellent opportunity to thrive if the right policies are implemented. However, there is another group of countries that relies heavily on natural resources. These countries face a serious challenge, since they must diversify.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_619.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_619

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    Related research

    Keywords: Asia; China; Global Crisis; Open Forest;

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Norio Usui & Arnelyn Abdon, 2010. "Why Has China Succeeded-And Why It Will Continue To Do So," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_611, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2010. "Can Trade with the People’s Republic of China Be an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia ," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 27(1), pages 160-181.
    5. Gupta, Souvik & Miniane, Jacques, 2009. "Recessions and Recoveries in Asia: What Can the Past Teach Us about the Present Recession?," ADBI Working Papers 150, Asian Development Bank Institute.
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