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Civil War in a Globalized World: Diplomacy and Trade

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  • Mathieu Couttenier
  • Raphael Soubeyran
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    Abstract

    We consider the impact of diplomatic intervention in civil wars on international trade. Using a large data set over the period 1948-2005, we obtain two striking results: (i) diplomatic intervention has a positive effect on trade for the country in which the civil war occurs (target country); and (ii) bilateral trade between the target and intervening country does not increase more than trade between the target country and the other countries. We argue that intervention induces an enhancement of trade-promoting capital in the target country and show that diplomatic intervention has a positive effect on institutional quality in the target country.

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    File URL: http://www.lameta.univ-montp1.fr/Documents/DR2010-02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier in its series Working Papers with number 10-02.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2010
    Date of revision: Feb 2010
    Handle: RePEc:lam:wpaper:10-02

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    1. Berger, Daniel & Easterly, William & Nunn, Nathan & Satyanath, Shanker, 2013. "Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade during the Cold War," Scholarly Articles 11986334, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    8. Costinot, Arnaud, 2009. "On the origins of comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 255-264, April.
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    14. William Easterly & Shanker Satyanath & Daniel Berger, 2008. "Superpower Interventions and their Consequences for Democracy: An Empirical Inquiry," NBER Working Papers 13992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, S.J., 1999. "Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 418, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 03 Aug 2000.
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mathieu COUTTENIER & Raphael SOUBEYRAN, 2011. "Diplomatic Intervention in Civil War : Trade for All or Trade for One?," Working Papers 11-08, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Apr 2011.

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