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Abstract

The paper draws on Baumol’s (1967) model of «unbalanced growth» to show that pressing economic problems of mature economies such as declining growth rates of real GDP, an increasing government share in GDP and the «cost explosion» in health care can readily be explained – yet they cannot be finally resolved. Swiss economic data are used to verify that the economic developments Baumol’s model predicts are indeed underway. Some policy as well as politico-economic conclusions are drawn from these insights.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 05-112.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:05-112

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Keywords: Unbalanced growth; Rise in government share of GDP; Health care cost explosion; Declining GDP growth rates; Switzerland;

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References

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  1. Yngve Abrahamsen & Roland Aeppli & Erdal Atukeren & Michael Graff & Christian Müller & Bernd Ships, 2005. "The Swiss Disease: Facts and Artefacts, A Reply to Kehoe and Prescott," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 749-758, July.
  2. Jochen Hartwig, 2005. "Messprobleme bei der Ermittlung des Wachstums der Arbeitsproduktivität – dargestellt anhand eines Vergleichs der Schweiz mit den USA," KOF Working papers 05-100, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Jochen Hartwig, 2005. "On misusing National Accounts data for governance purposes," KOF Working papers 05-101, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  4. Jochen Hartwig & Bernd Schips, 2005. "Verzerrungen von Konsumentenpreisindices und ihr Einfluss auf das "reale" Wirtschaftswachstum- dargestellt am Beispiel der USA," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 225(4), pages 394-412, July.
  5. Kander, Astrid, 2005. "Baumol's disease and dematerialization of the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 119-130, October.
  6. Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150, March.
  7. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281.
  8. Jack E. Triplett & Barry P. Bosworth, 2003. "Productivity measurement issues in services industries: "Baumol's disease" has been cured," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 23-33.
  9. Nicholas Oulton, 2000. "Must the growth rate decline? Baumol's unbalanced growth revisited," Bank of England working papers 107, Bank of England.
  10. Mark Setterfield, 2003. "Supply and Demand in the Theory of Long-run Growth: Introduction to a symposium on demand-led growth," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 23-32.
  11. Anita Wölfl, 2003. "Productivity Growth in Service Industries: An Assessment of Recent Patterns and the Role of Measurement," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2003/7, OECD Publishing.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jochen Hartwig, 2010. "‘Baumol’s diseases’: the case of Switzerland," KOF Working papers 10-250, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Jochen Hartwig, 2006. "What Drives Health Care Expenditure? Baumol’s Model of ‘Unbalanced Growth’ Revisited," KOF Working papers 06-133, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Jochen Hartwig, 2007. "Ist die «Baumol’sche Krankheit» geheilt?," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 1(4), pages 23-31, December.
  4. Colombier, Carsten, 2012. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Does Baumol's cost disease loom large?," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 12-5, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

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