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Post-Compulsory Schooling of Youth in Turkey during the Great Recession: A Case of Pro-cyclical Enrollment

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  • Murat Demirci

    (Department of Economics, Koç University)

  • Meltem Poyraz

    (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University)

Abstract

The impact of recessions on school enrollment is ambiguous. On one hand, recessions might increase the likelihood of enrollment due to decreasing opportunity costs of attending school. On the other hand, recessions might discourage enrollment due to reductions households have in funds available for education and deteriorating expectations about returns to education. In this paper, we empirically analyze how local unemployment rates affect enrollment decisions in Turkey during the period covering the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Our estimates show that the likelihood of enrollment in university undergraduate programs decreases during periods of and in regions experiencing higher unemployment, whereas the enrollment in high schools is not affected. This finding contradicts earlier findings of counter-cyclical enrollment in the context of developed countries. This contrast highlights the variations in the relative importance of the effect of income and expectations and in the potential long-term effects of recessions across countries. In particular, recessions might have longer-lasting negative effects in developing countries due to their adverse effect on human capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Demirci & Meltem Poyraz, 2021. "Post-Compulsory Schooling of Youth in Turkey during the Great Recession: A Case of Pro-cyclical Enrollment," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2117, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:2117
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    1. Murat Demirci & Meltem Poyraz, 2021. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Handling Irregularities Resulting from the 2014 Revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Great Recession; School enrollment; Human capital accumulation; Unemployment; Turkey.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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