IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kgu/wpaper/172.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Aging, Labor Market Frictions, and PAYG Pension

Author

Listed:
  • Takaaki Morimoto

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Yuta Nakabo

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Ken Tabata

    (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)

Abstract

Employing a two-period OLG model with labor market frictions and PAYG pension, this paper examines the effects of population aging on the unemployment rate and the per capita output of the economy. We show that in economies in which the population growth rate is already low and the size of PAYG pension is relatively large, a further decline in the population growth rate reduces the unemployment rate and increases the per capita output of the economy in the short run, but it increases the unemployment rate and reduces the per capita output of the economy in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Takaaki Morimoto & Yuta Nakabo & Ken Tabata, 2018. "Population Aging, Labor Market Frictions, and PAYG Pension," Discussion Paper Series 172, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:kgu:wpaper:172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://192.218.163.163/RePEc/pdf/kgdp172.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kazumasa Oguro, 2014. "Challenges confronting Abenomics and Japanese public finance ?Fiscal consolidation must start by squarely facing reality?," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 301-318, August.
    2. Michael Bräuninger, 2005. "Social Security, Unemployment, and Growth," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 423-434, August.
    3. repec:wop:calsdi:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mortensen, Dale T. & Pissarides, Christopher A., 1999. "Job reallocation, employment fluctuations and unemployment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1171-1228, Elsevier.
    5. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    6. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    7. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    8. Bean, Charles & Pissarides, Christopher, 1993. "Unemployment, consumption and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 837-854, May.
    9. Alexander Kemnitz, 2003. "Immigration, Unemployment and Pensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(1), pages 31-48, March.
    10. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    11. Ken Tabata, 2015. "Population Aging and Growth: the Effect of PAYG Pension Reform," Discussion Paper Series 125, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2015.
    12. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 955-961, July.
    13. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    14. ARTIGE, Lionel & CAVENAILE, Laurent & PESTIEAU, Pierre, 2014. "The macroeconomics of PAYG pension schemes in an aging society," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014033, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    15. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen & Lee, Ronald, 2003. "Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 83-101, February.
    16. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
    17. Garloff, Alfred & Wapler, Rüdiger, 2016. "Labour Shortages and Replacement Demand in Germany. The (Non-)Consequences of Demographic Change," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145497, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Garloff, Alfred & Wapler, Rüdiger, 2016. "Labour shortages and replacement demand in Germany : the (non)-consequences of demographic change," IAB-Discussion Paper 201605, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    19. Corneo, Giacomo & Marquardt, Marko, 2000. "Public pensions, unemployment insurance, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 293-311, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Friese, Max, 2017. "The interplay between trade unions and the social security system in an aging economy," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 148, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    2. Rudra Narayan Kushwaha & Taniya Ghosh, 2023. "The Effects of population growth on patents and economic growth dynamics," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-05, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takaaki Morimoto & Yuta Nakabo & Ken Tabata, 2016. "Population Aging, Fiscal Sustainability and PAYG Pension Reform," Discussion Paper Series 140, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Feb 2016.
    2. Anna Batyra & David de la Croix & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens, 2016. "Structural changes in the labor market and the rise of early retirement in Europe," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Friese, Max, 2017. "The interplay between trade unions and the social security system in an aging economy," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 148, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    4. Ken‐ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im & Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2022. "Asset bubbles, unemployment, and financial market frictions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1806-1832, October.
    5. Ken‐ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im, 2019. "Asset bubbles, labour market frictions and R&D‐based growth," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 822-846, May.
    6. Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard, 2012. "LOLA 2.0: Luxembourg OverLapping generation model for policy Analysis," BCL working papers 76, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2016. "Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc [Ageing and pension reform. A computational olg model for Morocco]," MPRA Paper 74077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jeongseok Song & Doojin Ryu, 2018. "Aging effects on consumption risk-sharing channels in European countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 585-617.
    9. Augusto Ruperez Micola & Francisco Penaranda, 2011. "On the divers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels," DEM Discussion Paper Series 11-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    10. Brecht Boone & Freddy Heylen, 2019. "Cross‐Country Differences in Unemployment: Fiscal Policy, Unions, and Household Preferences in General Equilibrium," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 1270-1302, July.
    11. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma, 2020. "Asset Bubbles, Unemployment, and a Financial Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Marchiori, Luca & Pierrard, Olivier, 2017. "How does global demand for financial services promote domestic growth in Luxembourg? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 103-123.
    13. Dedry, Antoine & Onder, Harun & Pestieau, Pierre, 2017. "Aging, social security design, and capital accumulation," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 145-155.
    14. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.
    16. Azariadis, Costas & Pissarides, Christopher A., 2007. "Unemployment dynamics with international capital mobility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 27-48, January.
    17. L'Haridon, Olivier & Malherbet, Franck, 2009. "Employment protection reform in search economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 255-273, April.
    18. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2024. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. Xiaomeng Zhang & Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu, 2022. "Aging and automation in economies with search frictions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 621-642, April.
    20. Cigno, A., 2016. "Conflict and Cooperation Within the Family, and Between the State and the Family, in the Provision of Old-Age Security," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 609-660, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population aging; Labor market frictions; Unemployment; PAYG pension;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kgu:wpaper:172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Toshihiro Okada (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dekgujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.