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Job Loss Fears and (Extremist) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data

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  • Geishecker, Ingo

    ()
    (University of Göttingen)

  • Siedler, Thomas

    ()
    (University of Hamburg)

Abstract

There is a large body of literature analyzing the relationship between objective economic conditions and voting behavior, but there is very little evidence of how perceived economic insecurity impacts on political preferences. Using seventeen years of household panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we examine whether job loss fears impact on individuals’ party identification. Consistent with the deprivation theory, we find strong and robust evidence that subjective job loss fears foster affinity for parties at the far right-wing of the political spectrum. The effects are broadly comparable in direction and magnitude with the ones from objective unemployment and being out of the labor force. However, our empirical estimates do not suggest that job loss fears result in people withdrawing their support from political parties altogether or increasingly identify with extremist left-wing parties.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6996.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6996

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Keywords: job insecurity; party identification; prospective voting; economic worries;

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  1. Rainer, Helmut & Siedler, Thomas, 2006. "Does Democracy Foster Trust?," IZA Discussion Papers 2154, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Falk, Armin & Kuhn, Andreas & Zweimüller, Josef, 2009. "Unemployment and Right-wing Extremist Crime," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7467, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Andrew J. Oswald & Nattavudh Powdthavee, 2010. "Daughters and Left-Wing Voting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 213-227, May.
  4. Alesina, Alberto F & Giuliano, Paola, 2013. "Family Ties," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Andreas Knabe & Steffen Rätzel, 2011. "Scarring or Scaring? The Psychological Impact of Past Unemployment and Future Unemployment Risk," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 283-293, 04.
  6. King, Gary & Rosen, Ori & Tanner, Martin & Wagner, Alexander F., 2008. "Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(04), pages 951-996, December.
  7. Thomas Siedler, 2010. "Schooling and Citizenship in a Young Democracy: Evidence from Postwar Germany," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(2), pages 315-338, 06.
  8. Eric Brunner & Stephen L. Ross & Ebonya Washington, 2011. "Economics and Policy Preferences: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 888-906, August.
  9. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
  10. Lena Edlund & Rohini Pande, 2002. "Why Have Women Become Left-Wing? The Political Gender Gap And The Decline In Marriage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 917-961, August.
  11. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
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