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Urban Density and COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Carozzi, Felipe

    (London School of Economics)

  • Provenzano, Sandro

    (London School of Economics)

  • Roth, Sefi

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper estimates the link between population density and COVID-19 spread and severity in the contiguous United States. To overcome confounding factors, we use two Instrumental Variable (IV) strategies that exploit geological features and historical populations to induce exogenous variation in population density without affecting COVID-19 related deaths directly. We find that density has affected the timing of the outbreak in each county, with denser locations more likely to have an early outbreak. However, we find no evidence that population density is linked with COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using data from Google, Facebook and the US Census, we also investigate several possible mechanisms for our findings. We show that population density can affect the timing of outbreaks through higher connectedness of denser location. Furthermore, we find that population density is positively associated with proxies of social distancing and negatively associated with the age of the population, highlighting the importance of these mediating factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Carozzi, Felipe & Provenzano, Sandro & Roth, Sefi, 2020. "Urban Density and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13440, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13440
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Carozzi, Felipe & Roth, Sefi, 2020. "Dirty Density: Air Quality and the Density of American Cities," IZA Discussion Papers 13191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; density; congestion forces;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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