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On the Exchange Rate and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets

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  • Abid, Abir

    (University of Orléans)

  • Rault, Christophe

    (University of Orléans)

Abstract

We examine the Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) response to the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) shocks from a panel VAR perspective used for the first time in this context. Focusing on Emerging Market Economies (EME), our noteworthy findings postulate that (a) both home and foreign EPU shocks are highly significant in explaining the ERV, (b) the contribution of the foreign EPU to the ERV fluctuation overcomes the local EPU's share, (c) the ERV acts as a significant transmission channel of the US-EPU to the economic activity, (d) the home EPU increases with higher US-EPU and vice versa and (e) the latter is surprisingly and markedly sensitive to EME macroeconomic conditions. Our findings are robust to different sensitivity analyses, provide novel insights into EPU international spillovers, and have interesting policy implications for EME decisions makers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Abid, Abir & Rault, Christophe, 2020. "On the Exchange Rate and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13365, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13365
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    Cited by:

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    2. Riadh El Abed & Zouheir Mighri & Abderrazek Ben Hamouda, 2022. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Exchange Rate in China and Japan? Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Adjustment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 28-36.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates volatility; economic policy uncertainty; emerging markets; Panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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