Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model

Every year the European Commission provides mid-term projections for agricultural markets. These projections are reported for the EU-28 aggregate and split into EU-15 and EU-N13 to reflect the diversity existing between the pre- and post-2004 Member States. However, the diversity of European agriculture goes beyond these two aggregates. This report presents the results of projections for agricultural markets in the EU Member States by 2026, generated using the AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) model. The projections are consistent with the European Commission's 2016 Mid-Term Outlook and represent production, consumption, yields, and trade for the main commodity groups (cereals, oilseeds, dairy and meats). In addition, the main characteristics of the model and the partnership that manages it are described. The report also provides examples of further analysis that can be performed with AGMEMOD in terms of country- or region-specific developments, focusing on agricultural markets in the EU-N13, and in terms of the relations between a single Member State and the rest of the EU, in this case focusing on the United Kingdom and the EU. Furthermore, an analysis of the implementation of coupled support in the EU Member States is presented. The report finishes with some testimonies of policy makers about the role AGMEMOD plays in their policy analysis, and sketching how AGMEMOD might develop in the mid-term.