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Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Banse, Martin
  • Salamon, Petra
  • Ledebur, Oliver von
  • van Leeuwen, Myrna
  • Bouma, Foppe
  • Salputra, Guna
  • Fellmann, Thomas
  • Nekhay, Olexandr

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world market price level. In general, the removals of the trade measures in Russia and Ukraine are projected to induce world market prices of cereals and oilseeds to decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Banse, Martin & Salamon, Petra & Ledebur, Oliver von & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Salputra, Guna & Fellmann, Thomas & Nekhay, Olexandr, 2012. "Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122536, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122536
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.122536
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chantreuil, Frédéric & Levert, Fabrice & Hanrahan, Kevin, 2005. "The Luxembourg Agreement Reform of the CAP: an Analysis Using the AG-MEMOD Composite Model," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 232590, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "Linking Large Numbers of Individual National Models: The Case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43539, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Dol, Wietse & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-6.
    4. van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bartova, Lubica & M'Barek, Robert & Erjavec, Emil, 2007. "Implications of EU Enlargement for Agricultural Markets in the New Member States," 104th Seminar, September 5-8, 2007, Budapest, Hungary 8522, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bartova, Lubica & M'Barek, Robert & Kavcic, Stane, 2007. "EU Agricultural Markets Outlook - Agmemod Approach," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162403, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Erjavec, Emil & van Leeuven, Myrna & Regoršek, Darja, 2007. "The Development of CEEC Agricultural Markets After EU Accession," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162402, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamulczuk, Mariusz & Grudkowska, Sylwia & Gędek, Stanisław & Klimkowski, Cezary & Stańko, Stanisław, 2013. "Essential econometric methods of forecasting agricultural commodity prices," Multiannual Program Reports 164834, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    2. Petra Salamon & Martin Banse & Jesus Barreiro Hurle & Ondrej Chaloupka & Trevor Donnellan & Emil Erjavec & Thomas Fellmann & Kevin Hanrahan & Marlen Hass & Roel Jongeneel & Verena Laquai & Myrna van L, 2017. "Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model," JRC Research Reports JRC109115, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;

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