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Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis

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  • Banse, Martin
  • Salamon, Petra
  • Ledebur, Oliver von
  • van Leeuwen, Myrna
  • Bouma, Foppe
  • Salputra, Guna
  • Fellmann, Thomas
  • Nekhay, Olexandr
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world market price level. In general, the removals of the trade measures in Russia and Ukraine are projected to induce world market prices of cereals and oilseeds to decline.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122536.

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    Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122536

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    Keywords: Partial equilibrium model; price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;

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    1. van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bartova, Lubica & M'Barek, Robert & Erjavec, Emil, 2007. "Implications of EU Enlargement for Agricultural Markets in the New Member States," 104th Seminar, September 5-8, 2007, Budapest, Hungary 8522, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Erjavec, Emil & van Leeuven, Myrna & Regoršek, Darja, 2007. "The Development of CEEC Agricultural Markets After EU Accession," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162402, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Dol, Wietse & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(8).
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