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What drives car use in Europe?

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Abstract

The methodology is based on the results of a recent EU-wide travel survey that maps user preferences and on the application of a Random Forest classification model that explains the interaction of the main variables that affect these choices. The results of the analysis suggest that it is probably too early to assume that car travel demand is close to a peak throughout Europe. It would be more accurate to claim that a plateau has been reached in a few EU Member States with a developed economy, high car ownership rates and slowly changing demographic profiles. Evidence shows that in some of these countries car use has peaked. However, significant growth in car use should be expected in Eastern Europe. The trends concerning the use of passenger cars are certainly not uniform across the EU since each Member State has its own socio-economic conditions and follows a different path as regards car dependency. In addition, some of the indications of changes in trends can be circumstantial or temporary, as for example the impacts that the economic crisis may have on car ownership and use. Others are long term and perhaps not clearly visible yet. The changing structure of the economy, the longer periods of education for the young, the more fragmented and deregulated labour market and the changing cultural values (i.e. the high value of digital connectivity) may be gradually changing the role of the car in the society in the long term, but there is still not sufficient evidence to suggest that they already are having an impact throughout Europe. Part of the impact of the factors analysed here may simply be the result of postponing decisions related to car use. However, even postponement alters the total level of demand, for if one age group now makes fewer trips than it did before, it lowers the overall level of demand. Evidence also shows that the young groups who are now postponing driving a car do not reach the levels of car use in their 30s and 40s that the generation before had. Some who postpone using the car will forever abandon car driving.

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  • Focas Caralampo & Panayotis Christidis, 2017. "What drives car use in Europe?," JRC Research Reports JRC105792, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105792
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC105792
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phil Goodwin, 2012. "Peak Travel, Peak Car and the Future of Mobility: Evidence, Unresolved Issues, and Policy Implications, and a Research Agenda," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2012/13, OECD Publishing.
    2. Peter Headicar, 2013. "The Changing Spatial Distribution of the Population in England: Its Nature and Significance for 'Peak Car'," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 310-324, May.
    3. Tobias Kuhnimhof & Dirk Zumkeller & Bastian Chlond, 2013. "Who Made Peak Car, and How? A Breakdown of Trends over Four Decades in Four Countries," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 325-342, May.
    4. Phil Goodwin & Kurt Van Dender, 2013. "'Peak Car' - Themes and Issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 243-254, May.
    5. Alexa Delbosc & Graham Currie, 2013. "Causes of Youth Licensing Decline: A Synthesis of Evidence," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 271-290, May.
    6. Davide Fiorello & Loredana Zani, 2015. "EU Survey on issues related to transport and mobility," JRC Research Reports JRC96151, Joint Research Centre.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dėdelė, Audrius & Miškinytė, Auksė & Andrušaitytė, Sandra & Nemaniūtė-Gužienė, Jolanta, 2020. "Dependence between travel distance, individual socioeconomic and health-related characteristics, and the choice of the travel mode: a cross-sectional study for Kaunas, Lithuania," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport economics; transport policy; mobility; car use; passenger;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R49 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Other

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