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La Predicción de la Insolvencia de Empresas Chilenas

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  • Felipe Zurita

    ()
    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

Abstract

Este trabajo compara modelos de inestabilidad financiera de naturaleza estadística y basados en la teoría de opciones, para el conjunto de sociedades anónimas abiertas chilenas. Los modelos estadísticos tienen un ajuste adecuado, aunque la peculiar historia de las quiebras en el período considerado, a saber, su aglomeración al inicio, pone en duda su utilidad como herramienta predictiva. En el segundo caso, en cambio, el promedio de probabilidades de quiebra muestra una alta correlación con indicadores de riesgo bancarios, y los precede hasta en tres trimestres. En suma, este primer esfuerzo de medición es de un éxito moderado, pero señala una serie de caminos cuya exploración aparece promisoria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 336.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:336

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Keywords: Insolvencia; riesgo de crédito;

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  1. Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CARF F-Series CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  2. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
  3. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 745, Econometric Society.
  4. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘Random Coefficient Panel Data Models’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0434, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. Darrell Duffie & Ke Wang, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 10743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. William W. Gould & Jeffrey Pitblado & Brian Poi, 2010. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 4, number ml4, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Rodrigo Cifuentes S., 2011. "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 1, pages 001-010 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Rodrigo Alfaro & Natalia Gallardo, 2009. "Análisis de Derechos Contingentes: Aplicación a Casas Comerciales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 535, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Felipe Zurita L., 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction for Chilean Companies," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 93-116, April.

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