IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inf/wpaper/2010.1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Cunha

    (Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

This paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of the wine production in Portugal’s Douro region during the period of 1932 to 2008. In general, wine production is characterised by large fluctuations. These fluctuations may cover the existence of deterministic cycles. Hence, in this paper, we decompose the wine production’s variance in order to find the dominating production cycles In the next step we try to explain those cycles using a dependent variable, namely the medium spring temperature for the period 1967 to 2008. We estimated a Time-Varying Autoregressive Model, which could explain 76% of wine variability (R2=0.76; n=69; p

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cunha, 2010. "Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach," Working Papers 2010.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2010.1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://infer-research.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/v0zvednkhlywmaxv79idn6wr6i4vrwlg1467805701.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    2. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    3. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian R. Richter, 2002. "Are Capital Markets Efficient? Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Europe," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 333-356.
    4. Ferris, John N., 2006. "Forecasting World Crop Yields as Probability Distributions," Staff Paper Series 11740, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    5. Nicholas G. Kalaitzandonakes & J. S. Shonkwiler, 1992. "A State-Space Approach to Perennial Crop Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(2), pages 343-352.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 207-234, July.
    7. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Has there been any structural convergence in the transmission of European monetary policies?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 85-101, July.
    8. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian R. Richter, 2004. "Spectral Analysis as a Tool for Financial Policy: An Analysis of the Short-End of the British Term Structure," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 23(3), pages 271-288, April.
    9. Chi‐Chung Chen & Ching‐Cheng Chang, 2005. "The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 503-511, November.
    10. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
    11. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
    12. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
    13. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
    2. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach," Working Papers 47, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    3. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2011. "Synchronization of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysis," CEF.UP Working Papers 1105, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2010. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables: a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1054-1070.
    5. Maria do Rosario CORREIA & Christian GOKUS & Andrew Hughes HALLETT & Christian R. RICHTER, 2016. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Determinants of the Greek Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 350-376, June.
    6. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00333582 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 207-234, July.
    8. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
    9. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Esser, Andreas, 2014. "A Wavelet Approach to Synchronization of Output Cycles," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100545, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 99, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    13. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2011. "Trans-Pacific Economic Relations and US-China Business Cycles : Convergence within Asia versus US Economic Leadership," Development Economics Working Papers 23244, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    15. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Sectoral Survey‐based Confidence Indicators for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 175-206, April.
    16. Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(1), pages 43-69.
    17. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
    18. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area," Working Papers 0419, Banco de España.
    19. Mr. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 2004/146, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "Synchronization patterns in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2038-2059, April.
    21. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spectral Analysis; Time-varying spectra; Kalman filter; Wine forecast; Port Wine; Climate variability;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2010.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Cerqueira (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inferea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.