Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mario Cunha

    ()
    (Universidade do Porto)

  • Christian Richter

    ()
    (School of Economics, Kingston University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of the wine production in Portugal’s Douro region during the period of 1932 to 2008. In general, wine production is characterised by large fluctuations. These fluctuations may cover the existence of deterministic cycles. Hence, in this paper, we decompose the wine production’s variance in order to find the dominating production cycles In the next step we try to explain those cycles using a dependent variable, namely the medium spring temperature for the period 1967 to 2008. We estimated a Time-Varying Autoregressive Model, which could explain 76% of wine variability (R2=0.76; n=69; p

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.infer-research.net/files_publications/wp2010_1.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Network for Economic Research - INFER in its series Working Papers with number 2010.1.

as in new window
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2010.1

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.infer-research.net/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Spectral Analysis; Time-varying spectra; Kalman filter; Wine forecast; Port Wine; Climate variability;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
  2. Ferris, John N., 2006. "Forecasting World Crop Yields as Probability Distributions," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia, International Association of Agricultural Economists 25649, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, 06.
  5. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Has there been any structural convergence in the transmission of European monetary policies?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 85-101, July.
  6. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
  7. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian R. Richter, 2004. "Spectral Analysis as a Tool for Financial Policy: An Analysis of the Short-End of the British Term Structure," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 23(3), pages 271-288, 04.
  8. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
  9. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian R. Richter, 2002. "Are Capital Markets Efficient? Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Europe," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 333-356.
  10. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 207-234, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2010.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Richter).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.