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Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Cunha

    (Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto and Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais)

  • Christian Richter

    (Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo)

Abstract

In this paper we model the impact of climate dynamics on wine production temporal cycles for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro wine region. We identify the cyclical properties of wine production and which cycles are de-termined by spring temperature and soil water levels during summer. We find that the in-season spring temperature as well as the temperatures of two and three years ago explain about 65% of the variability of wine pro-duction. When the soil water level in summer is incorporated, the R2 in-creases to 83% minimizing the Akaike criterion. The effects of soil water in wine production are depending on the timing. The in-season effect of an increase in soil water is negative, whilst soil water from two and three years ago have a positive effect on wine production. There is a stable but non- constant link between production and the spring temperature. The temper-ature is responsible for two long-medium cycles of 5.8 year and 4.2 years as well as a short one of 2.4 years that began since the 80s. The soil water level can explain 60% of the 7 years cycles of wine production as well as a short one of 2.3 years cycle which has been happening since the 90s. We also identify a shift of the relative importance away from temperature to soil water. Despite using a new an extended dataset, our results largely confirm the results of the impact of climate on the wine production in Douro region in our previous research. Modelling the impact of climate on the wine production can be an important instrument contributing for mitigation strategies facing the projected climate conditions in order to remain com-petitive in the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach," Working Papers 47, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:47
    as

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    File URL: http://mgt.guc.edu.eg/wpapers/047Cunha_2018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Santos & S. Grätsch & M. Karremann & G. Jones & J. Pinto, 2013. "Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 211-225, March.
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    4. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2016. "The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 239-251, September.
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    6. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nith, Kosal & Ly, Singhong, 2018. "Reinvigorating Cambodian agriculture: Transforming from extensive to intensive agriculture," MPRA Paper 93091, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2018.
    2. Nith, Kosal & Ly, Singhong, 2018. "Reinvigorating Cambodian agriculture: Transforming from extensive to intensive agriculture," MPRA Paper 93086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate variability; wine production; time-varying spectra; Kalman filter; Douro region;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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