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The Rise in Inequality after Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role?

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  • Davide Furceri
  • Mr. Prakash Loungani
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  • Pietro Pizzuto

Abstract

Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2020). In this paper, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers (IMF 2020; Stiglitz 2020; Sandbu 2020b) that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto, 2021. "The Rise in Inequality after Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role?," IMF Working Papers 2021/120, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/120
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    Cited by:

    1. Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Jonathan D. Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto, 2022. "Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 811-839, December.
    2. Jakub Borowski & Krystian Jaworski, 2023. "Economic and behavioral determinants of forced household savings during the COVID-19 pandemic," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 237-253, February.
    3. Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2021. "Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 111197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gao, Shuaizhi & Zhou, Peng & Zhang, Hongyan, 2023. "Does energy transition help narrow the urban-rural income gap? Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Dénes Kucsera & Hanno Lorenz, 2022. "COVID-19 and (gender) inequality in income: the impact of discretionary policy measures in Austria," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    impact of pandemic; pandemic event; severity of pandemic; pandemic case; pandemic dummy; COVID-19; Income inequality; Fiscal stance; Income; Health care spending; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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