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Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

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  • Allan Dizioli
  • Mr. Jaime Guajardo
  • Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
  • Rui Mano
  • Mr. Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Dizioli & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Vladimir Klyuev & Rui Mano & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies," IMF Working Papers 2016/170, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/170
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    Cited by:

    1. Allan Dizioli & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2016. "Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy," IMF Working Papers 2016/212, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rui Mano, 2016. "Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model," IMF Working Papers 2016/219, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gee Hee Hong & Jaewoo Lee & Wei Liao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2017. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-34, February.
    4. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    5. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    6. Mohd Azlan Shah Saidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Zurina Kefeli@Zulkefli, 2018. "Impact of China on Malaysian Economy: Empirical Evidence of Sign-Restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) Model," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 25-44.
    7. Sin Yee Lee & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Norlin Khalid & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2022. "The Spillover Effects of Chinese Shocks on the Belt and Road Initiative Economies: New Evidence Using Panel Vector Autoregression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-18, July.
    8. L. Salzmann, 2018. "China’s Economic Slowdown and International Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2018.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    9. Pahl, Stefan & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob & Stender, Frederik, 2020. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID-19 on developing countries through global value chains," IDOS Discussion Papers 21/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    10. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "China's Economic Slowdown and International Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Preprints 176757, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    11. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Wei Liao & Shi Piao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2016. "China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 2016/173, International Monetary Fund.

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