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Inflation Targeting and Country Risk: An Empirical Investigation

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  • Mr. Armand P Fouejieu
  • Mr. Scott Roger

Abstract

The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has highlighted the role of country risk premia as a link between countries’ fiscal and external balances, financial conditions and monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate how adoption of inflation targeting (IT) affects spreads. It is hypothesized that country risk premia for IT countries (especially among emerging market economies) may be lower than for other countries owing to greater policy predictability and more stable long-term inflation. The findings suggest that IT reduces the risk premium, both through adoption of the IT regime, and through the observed track record in stabilizing inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Armand P Fouejieu & Mr. Scott Roger, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Country Risk: An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2013/021, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    2. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    3. Zeev Kril & David Leiser & Avia Spivak, 2016. "What Determines the Credibility of the Central Bank of Israel in the Public Eye?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 67-93, March.
    4. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," Working Papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    5. Manai Daboussi, Olfa, 2014. "Inflation Targeting As a Monetary Policy Rule: Experience and Prospects," MPRA Paper 59336, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2014.
    6. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Li, Jie, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-72.
    7. Raphael Semet & Thierry Roncalli & Lauren Stagnol, 2021. "ESG and Sovereign Risk: What is Priced in by the Bond Market and Credit Rating Agencies?," Papers 2110.06617, arXiv.org.
    8. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Does the composition of government expenditures matter for sovereign bond spreads' evolution in developing countries?," Working Papers halshs-02019063, HAL.
    9. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kotłowski, Jacek, 2020. "The Nonlinear Nature Of Country Risk And Its Implications For Dsge Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 601-628, April.
    10. Lanzafame, Matteo & Nogueira, Reginaldo, 2013. "Inflation targeting and interest rates," MPRA Paper 46153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jacek Kotłowski & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk," EcoMod2016 9416, EcoMod.
    12. Escudé, Guillermo J., 2013. "A DSGE model for a SOE with systematic interest and foreign exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-110.
    13. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2016. "Does inflation targeting reduce sovereign risk? Further evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 237-241.
    14. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2017. "The impact of fiscal rules on sovereign risk premia: International evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 63-67.
    15. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2016. "Does Inflation Targeting in Asia Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 294-311, June.
    16. Stojanovikj, Martin, 2022. "Can inflation targeting reduce price information asymmetry and alleviate corruptive behavior? Evidence from developing countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).

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