Unanticipated Money

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Unanticipated Money

Author Info

Cooley, Thomas F. (Department of Economics, University of Rochester)
Hansen, Gary D. (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles)

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Abstract

The role of unanticipated changes in money growth for aggregate fluctuations is reexamined using the methods of quantitative equilibrium business cycle theory. A stochastic growth model with money is constructed that has the feature, following Lucas (1972, 1975), that production and trade take place in spatially separated markets (islands). Individuals must infer changes in the aggregate price level from observing local relative prices. This causes individuals to react to changes in the average price level, due to unanticipated changes in the aggregate money supply, as though they were changes in market specific relative prices. We show that this mechanism can lead to quantitatively large fluctuations in real economic activity. The statistical properties of these fluctuations, however, are quite different from the properties of fluctuations observed in the U.S. economy.

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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 42.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:42

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Article
- Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1997. "Unanticipated Money Growth and the Business Cycle Reconsidered," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 624-48, November.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1992. "Recursive methods for computing equilibria of business cycle models," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 36, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gary D. Hansen, . "GAUSS code for the Imrohoroglu (1989) model without aggregate uncertainty," QM&RBC Codes 10, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
- Gary D. Hansen, . "GAUSS code for a basic model with money, cash-in-advance constraint," QM&RBC Codes 8, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
- Gary D. Hansen, . "GAUSS code for the basic Hansen (1985) model," QM&RBC Codes 7, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
- Gary D. Hansen, . "GAUSS code useful for many RBC models," QM&RBC Codes 6, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
- Gary D. Hansen, . "GAUSS code for an overlapping generations model with inelastic labor supply," QM&RBC Codes 9, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "On the contribution of technology shocks to business cycles," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 22-34. [Downloadable!]
Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 88-05, Rochester, Business - General.
- Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen, 1987. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," UCLA Economics Working Papers 496, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," RCER Working Papers 155, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984. "Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy," Discussion Papers 628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," NBER Working Papers 1618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Finn E. Kydland, 1989. "The role of money in a business cycle model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 23, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 2008/7, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," ERC Working Papers 0803, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
- Berument, Hakan & Dogan, Nukhet & Tansel, Aysit, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 3461, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
- M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ragan, Christopher, 1998. "On the Believable Benefits of Low Inflation," Working Papers 98-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
Christian Calmes & Frederic Dufourt, 2000. "Nominal Dynamics in Expected Market-Clearing Models," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 126, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Modeling Money," NBER Working Papers 6371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Modeling money," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]

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