IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/igi/igierp/503.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation with Longevity Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Emilio Bisetti
  • Carlo A. Favero
  • Giacomo Nocera
  • Claudio Tebaldi

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework to evaluate the impact of longevity-linked securities on the risk-return trade-off for traditional portfolios. Generalized unexpected raise in life expectancy is a source of aggregate risk in the insurance sector balance sheets. Longevity-linked securities are a natural instrument to reallocate these risks by making them tradable in the financial market. This paper extends the strategic asset allocation model of (Campbell Viceira 2005) to include a longevity-linked investment in addition to equity and fixed income securities and describe the resulting term structure of risk-return trade-offs. The model highlights an unexpected predictability pattern of the survival probability estimates and gives an empirical valuation of the market price of longevity risk based on the LeeCarter(1992) mortality model and on the time series of prices for standardized annuities publicly offered by US insurance companies. Keywords: Longevity Risk, Strategic Asset Allocation JEL Classification: [G11, G12, G22]

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Bisetti & Carlo A. Favero & Giacomo Nocera & Claudio Tebaldi, 2013. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation with Longevity Risk," Working Papers 503, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/wp/2013/503.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Friedberg Leora & Webb Anthony, 2007. "Life Is Cheap: Using Mortality Bonds to Hedge Aggregate Mortality Risk," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, July.
    3. Biffis, Enrico & Blake, David, 2010. "Securitizing and tranching longevity exposures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 186-197, February.
    4. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1999. "New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1299-1318, December.
    5. M. A. Milevsky & S. D. Promislow & V. R. Young, 2006. "Killing the Law of Large Numbers: Mortality Risk Premiums and the Sharpe Ratio," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 673-686, December.
    6. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2009. "Asset allocation and location over the life cycle with investment-linked survival-contingent payouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1688-1699, September.
    7. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    8. Samuel Cox & Yijia Lin, 2007. "Natural Hedging of Life and Annuity Mortality Risks," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15.
    9. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J., 2012. "Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 507-529.
    10. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, Decembrie.
    11. Milevsky,Moshe A., 2006. "The Calculus of Retirement Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521842587.
    12. Erhan Bayraktar & Virginia Young, 2008. "Pricing options in incomplete equity markets via the instantaneous Sharpe ratio," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 399-429, October.
    13. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    14. Yijia Lin & Samuel H. Cox, 2005. "Securitization of Mortality Risks in Life Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 227-252, June.
    15. Pitacco, Ermanno & Denuit, Michel & Haberman, Steven & Olivieri, Annamaria, 2009. "Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199547272, Decembrie.
    16. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    17. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    18. Campbell, John Y. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig & Whitelaw, Robert F., 1998. "The Econometrics Of Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 559-562, December.
    19. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
    20. Bayraktar, Erhan & Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S. & Young, Virginia R., 2009. "Valuation of mortality risk via the instantaneous Sharpe ratio: Applications to life annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 676-691, March.
    21. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718, December.
    22. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    23. Pelsser, Antoon, 2008. "On the Applicability of the Wang Transform for Pricing Financial Risks," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 171-181, May.
    24. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    25. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1988. "Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 53-84, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yajing Xu & Michael Sherris & Jonathan Ziveyi, 2020. "Market Price of Longevity Risk for a Multi‐Cohort Mortality Model With Application to Longevity Bond Option Pricing," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 571-595, September.
    2. Amariei, Cosmina, 2020. "Asset Allocation in Europe: Reality vs. Expectations," ECMI Papers 27304, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Carlo A. Favero & Ruben Fernandez-Fuertes, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the COVID Era and Beyond: the Fed vs the ECB," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23209, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Chen, Zhanhui & Yang, Bowen, 2019. "In search of preference shock risks: Evidence from longevity risks and momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 225-249.
    5. Rachel WINGENBACH & Jong-Min KIM & Hojin JUNG, 2020. "Living Longer in High Longevity Risk," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 47-86, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bauer, Daniel & Börger, Matthias & Ruß, Jochen, 2010. "On the pricing of longevity-linked securities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 139-149, February.
    2. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    3. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    4. Ting Wang & Virginia R. Young, 2010. "Hedging Pure Endowments with Mortality Derivatives," Papers 1011.0248, arXiv.org.
    5. Wang, Ting & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Hedging pure endowments with mortality derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 238-255.
    6. Bahl, Raj Kumari & Sabanis, Sotirios, 2021. "Model-independent price bounds for Catastrophic Mortality Bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 276-291.
    7. Johnny Siu‐Hang Li & Andrew Cheuk‐Yin Ng, 2011. "Canonical Valuation of Mortality‐Linked Securities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(4), pages 853-884, December.
    8. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    9. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    11. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    12. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2017. "Optimal asset allocation for strategic investors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 970-987.
    14. Min Zheng, 2015. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Speculative Behavior in Insurance-Linked Securities," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-12, March.
    15. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
    16. Post Thomas, 2012. "Individual Welfare Gains from Deferred Life-Annuities under Stochastic Mortality," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, June.
    17. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    18. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
    19. Castaneda, Pablo & Rudolph, Heinz P., 2011. "Upgrading investment regulations in second pillar pension systems : a proposal for Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5775, The World Bank.
    20. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J., 2012. "Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 507-529.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    longevity risk; strategic asset allocation jel classification: [g11; g12; g22];
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.